Credit crunch fears to conclude a temperamental month; NFP incoming – Markets Weekly Outlook
BY
Ben Graham
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Week in review – Markets remain very anxious, and they just found a new reason.
It seems traders will have to keep looking for reasons for volatility, as things won't settle anytime soon.
Since Kevin Warsh's nomination to head the Federal Reserve, Markets have been raging in brutal up-and-down swings.
Despite the harsh narratives, Stock Benchmarks remain near their all-time highs, and the immediate action looks more like a widespread rebalancing than a full-blown risk dump.
The most speculative assets have been slowly being tossed out since the October risk peaks, and this move is quickly translating into a newfound interest in quality (albeit not yet a real migration).
As some analysts call for a transition to the peak of the economic cycle, defensive assets and sectors are attracting attention. Bonds and Metals are actually the best performers this week.
After cryptocurrencies, tech/software, and semiconductors, a more concerning wave is gripping Financial Markets.
Waves of defaults among Private Equity and some of the most shaky tech companies are dragging down private lenders, Venture Capital firms, and some financials.
In case you forgot, this comes promptly after Credit Spreads reached new 2007 lows, and within not even a month, they are coming back to their December highs.
What could be concerning is how highly correlated the financial system has become since the Great Financial Crisis. Banks grew enormously, and it seems people quickly turned the page on the 2023 SVB blow-up, which raised questions about how large a credit spider web it has become.
In any case, the monthly picture is a scary one for Financials, and that's getting even more amplified today – Bank of America is down close to 4%, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are closer to -8%, but that's only the major banks.
Smaller lenders like Blackstone, Jefferies, and KKR & Co are down close to 30% on the month, and even Robinhood is suffering similar-sized drops. UBS is sending their own warnings and they're not pretty.
This will surely maintain more anxiety in the Markets. It's not that AI will lead to immediate spikes in layoffs; it's more about what happens to those who get replaced and how it spreads through the financial system at this point.
Weekly Performance across Asset Classes
Silver is calling and it wants its crown back!
The precious metal is closing well above its early February monthly highs as Metals caught a strong bid in today's action. These are preparations for something happening over the weekend.
Discover More:
The Week Ahead – NFP and PMIs all around the globe
Asia Pacific Markets – A condensed data package for APAC
Next week should be exiting for APAC traders. Without countic geopolitics, macro traders will await three PMI reports for China – There has been a surprising drop in the data as of late and the PBoC is talking about supporting their economy, not through Market-wide stimulus but with targeted assistance.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the data.
The Australian Dollar will once again be on the front-scene, between Inflation surveys, a speech from Governor Bullock, PMIs, Trade data and GDP.
It's going to be a very essential week for the 2026 FX leader – Let's see if it holds the test.
In Japan, traders will be listening closely to Governor Ueda's speech on Monday night. A hike could be coming towards mid-month for the Bank of Japan and he upped his tone recently regarding the possibility.
With two new decision-makers entering the Bank of Japan in the next months, it could be his last opportunity to build some form of consensus.
Europe and UK Markets – Eurozone and Swiss Inflation
The heavy slate of data also spreads to Europe with Inflation data (Consumer Prices and Producer Prices) releasing. Friday will also see the Yearly data for EU GDP, so keep this one in check.
But the largest culprit will be Swiss Inflation report, where traders should confirm whether negative rates will be a thing or not. A heavy test for FX markets.
North American Markets – More PMIs, but most importantly, Non-Farm Payrolls
Next week is going to be huge for North America. Without mentioning Iran, traders will receive a streak of PMIs from Canada and the US. A first round will come on Monday (Manufacturing) and the second will be on Wednesday (Services), along with the Beige Book (which had been a no-show but slowly getting interesting).
But Markets will have to await for the real Parade: Friday will release a Retail Sales and Non-Farm Payrolls double decker at 8:30 A.M..
Retail sales sent an honest shocker last month, missing by 0.5 percentage points, while Non-Farm Payrolls remained surprisingly strong – Make sure to not miss our incoming Previews.
Now, with a finally timely NFP, Participants shall see if this boost in employment really proves to be solid or just a seasonal one (with new year employment).
Even after the latest ease in narrative, keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those involving the US-Iran talks, as they are likely to continue influencing Commodity and broader Markets.
Next Week's High Tier Economic Events
Friday 27's Market Wrap
Today's session really continued the past session's turn towards geopolitical hedges and a general turn towards quality.
As mentioned in the introduction, banks have seen bloodshed along with tech companies, and this comes right after the gigantic Nvidia earnings.
A very concerning picture for what's coming. Still, Stock markets are closing off-of their session lows, supported by calmer month-end flows in the afternoon.
The US Dollar is also surprisingly at the bottom of the FX board, victim of some heavy repositioning or month-end settling flows. The CHF leading isn't much surprising however.
Expect to hear about Iran this weekend. Stay safe everyone!
Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!
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