Article 111 Alireza Arafi Takes over the War – The New Face of Power and the Calm Before the Storm?

Traders, the geopolitical board has just won a new centerpiece. After the attack that killed Khamenei, Iran acted quickly to avoid a vacuum of power and activated Article 111 of its Constitution.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

For the first time in 36 years, the country has a new leadership at the top. But make no mistake about the transition: the structure is of continuity and absolute loyalty to the regime. Below we dissect who is the man who now holds the reins of one of the largest nuclear and oil powers in the world.

Iran will not have an immediate sole successor. Khamenei's power was divided into a temporary council until the Expert Assembly chose a permanent Supreme Leader.

• Ayatollah Alireza Arafi: The strong man of the council.

• Masoud Pezeshkian: The current President.

• Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i: The Chief of the Judiciary.

Arafi, 67, is a religious technocrat who spent decades accumulating power in the shadows.

• Summit Trust: At the age of 33, he was appointed by Khamenei as leader of Friday's prayers, a position that requires absolute confidence in the highest levels.

• Function Accumulation: He held at the same time three of the country's most influential positions: Director of the entire seminary system, member of the Guardian Council (which vetoes laws and candidates) and member of the Expert Assembly (who chooses the Supreme Leader).

• Global Difference: Arafi speaks fluent English and Arabic, already met with Pope Francis in 2022 and defends the use of Artificial Intelligence for the global propaganda of the regime.

• The Military Arm: It is described by Reuters as a "completely reliable leulist" and the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) sees it as a safe pair of hands for this moment of crisis.

The activation of Article 111 and the appointment of Arafi bring an appearance of order, but the uncertainty as to whether it will become the Permanent Supreme Leader keeps the market on high alert.

ExpertFX Technical View:

• XAU/USD (Gold): With peakWeekend Gold exploding for $5,425, the market has already reduced the initial shock. The appointment of Arafi can stabilize prices momentarily if it signals a defensive posture rather than a suicidal escalation, but the bias remains high historical due to active conflict.

• Oil: The three-person council now controls the keys to the Ormuz Strait. Any statement from Arafi on "severe responses" will cause Oil to seek new maxims at tomorrow's opening.

• Feeling: I hope the next few days are extremely volatile as the world tests the determination of this new leadership.

The board has changed, but Iran's institutional survival game continues. Arafi is a master of internal politics and should not be underestimated.

My Vision: We've been living the greatest transition of power in the Middle East for decades under crossfire.

1. Focus on the Arafi Diplomacy: If he uses his language skills and international contacts (such as the Vatican) to unscrew, we can see a rapid retreat in the metals. If he bows to IRGC's pressure for revenge, Gold will have no roof.

2. Positioning: Keep notifications linked to ExpertFX. The market will react to each comma of the first statements of this new council.

Premium Access: Psychological Profile of New Leadership

How will Arafi react under military pressure? In the Premium Area, we released an analysis of Alireza Arafi's behavioral and historical decision-making profile to anticipate how he can manage Iran's response to Israeli and U.S. attacks.

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