U.S. Manufacturing in Strong Expansion – PMI Hit Expectations and Reaches Maximum of 8 Months

Traders, while the world watches the flames in the Middle East, U.S. internal economic data has just printed a surprise of brute force. The American manufacturing industry not only resisted high interest, it accelerated, reaching confidence levels that we had not seen for almost a year.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

Below is the technical dissection of the numbers via Bloomberg and S&P Global, and what this means for the cable of war between the Dollar and Gold.

Today's data shows that the industrial sector has come out of stagnation and entered a solid growth phase.

• The Main Data: The U.S. Manufacturing MIP registered 51.6 in February. This exceeded both the market estimate (51.4) and the previous reading (51.2).

• High Trust: Business confidence in the sector has expanded to a maximum of eight months.

• Internal components: The manufacturing ISM and the new orders are all in strong expansion territory. In addition, the employment component was above estimates and previous reading.

For the Federal Reserve, this data is a two-edged knife. A strong industry is good for GDP (which was at 1.4%), but it is bad for those who expect interest cuts.

• Dangerous Resilience: If manufacturing and employment remain strong, there is no rush for Fed to cut interest, especially with the core of the PCE designed at 3.0%.

• Impact on Dollar (DXY): This PMI acts as a support for the dollar, preventing an immediate free fall, despite the escape of institutional capital from the US we previously mapped.

How does this affect our analysis of Wyckoff in Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD)?

• Gold:The current gold rally is moved 90% by geopolitics and systemic risk. A strong MIP may cause short-term selling "noises", but it does not alter the thesis of protection against war and stagflationary inflation.

• Silver: Unlike gold, silver has strong industrial use. An expanding manufacturing (PMI > 50) increases the physical demand for silver, which gives extra support for breaking the trend line we saw in H4.

The American economy is showing that it still has productive breath, even under the weight of a global geopolitical crisis and restrictive interest.

My Vision: The MIP of 51.6 is a sign that the market's " Compression Phase" may be more resilient than panic suggests.

1. Opportunity in Silver: With the expanding manufacturing, silver becomes a "double engine" asset: geopolitical protection + real industrial demand.

2. Watch out for the Dollar: Don't bet on the total dollar collapse today. Data like this keeps DXY alive in the short term, creating volatility for those who operate Day Trade.

Premium access: The Impact of PMI on Smart Money Flow

The increase in industrial "new orders" signals that large players are anticipating possible breaks in the supply chain due to the conflict in Ormuz. In the Member Area, we now post the correlation report between the PMI and the metal risk premiums for the next 30 days.

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