Traders, to navigate Iran's current volatility, it is not enough to look at the graph; it is necessary to understand the trading pattern of the White House. We analyzed each geopolitical and commercial conflict since Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025. What we see is not random chaos, but a tactic of historical and predictable negotiation.
By Igor PereiraFinancial Market Analyst
This is your guide for the next 2 to 4 weeks of market.
Trump's pattern follows rigid steps that aim at a single goal: TO MAKE AN AGREEMENT.
All conflict begins with messages in Truth Social asking for an "agreement" and threats from "great armed". It's the phase of pure psychological pressure to force the opponent to the negotiating table.
Trump reinforces credibility with visible movement of troops or assets without firing the total conflict. We saw it in Venezuela and the acquisition of 10% of Intel, which yielded 80% profit in two months after the initial threats.
Weight announcements, strikes or sudden policy changes occur almost always on Friday nights. This provides a weekend buffer for investors and governments to digest the news before the opening of futures. The attack on Iran on 28 February followed exactly this pattern.
Markets open on Sunday night with violent movements. Initially, the market doubts the longevity of the conflict because "Trump likes agreements", disjoining part of the movement on Monday.
When the market tries to "buy the dive" waiting for a retreat, Trump doubles the bet using terms like wars that can last "forever". It's a negotiation tactic to show that he can take more than his opponent.
At this stage (where we are today, March 3rd), the market stops taking on a short engagement. Brent oil rises above $85, the Dow Jones falls (more than - 1,100 points. Today) and panic becomes structural.
After the risk award explodes, Trump introduces a calibrated unscaled language. He does not back down, but signals that negotiations are possible if certain criteria are met.
Trump monitors the bags and the price of gasoline. A long war that raises oil to $120-$130 (JPMorgan estimate) would destroy your target of lowering gasoline to $2.00/galon. When those limits are reached, the probability of a deal goes off.
The conflict concludes with a negotiated outcome framed as a strategic victory. The structure varies, but the narrative is always: "maximum pressure produced concessions".
Trump uses the weekend as a buffer for institutions and governments to digest the shock before the markets reopen.
21 June: U.S. and Israeli air strikes at Iran's nuclear sites.
1 September: U.S. military attacks on drug boats in the Caribbean.
10 October: Threat of 100% tariffs on China.
November 29th: Total closure of Venezuela's airspace.
December 25th: Military action in Nigeria.
28 February: U.S. air strikes in Iran (event that killed Khamenei).
When these events take place on the weekend, the price discovery becomes disorderly.
Gold (XAU/USD): We saw the Weekend Gold explode to $5,425 After the February 28 attack, jumping over all our technical resistance.
Oil: The closure of Rumaila and the risk in the Strait of Ormuz creates a pressure that is usually priced violently at the opening of Sunday at 6:00 ET.
Trump is highly responsive to drastic movements in financial markets. By acting on the weekend, it prevents algorithms from amplifying volatility in real time, which could generate a panic that feeds on itself during business hours.
Once the agreement is credible, uncertainty collapses and markets react abruptly and violently. It's the moment the oil drops and the stock goes off, as we've seen in previous episodes of 2025.
Trump is highly responsive to stock performance and energy prices.
Conflicting Priorities: Prolonged war would destroy three of its central promises: to be the 'president of peace', to eliminate inflation and to lower petrol for the $2.00/galon.
Critical Threshold: If Brent gets over it $90, the S&P 500 drops more than - Five percent or the gasoline goes up +10%, the likelihood of trading headlines increases substantially.
Risk of Ormuz: JPMorgan estimates that the total closure of the Ormuz Strait would lead the oil to $120-$130 and the US ICP ~5%.
A clear sign that Smart Money is in position is the recent behavior of metals.
Gold and Silver Fall: Even with the increased risk, Silver has fallen -20% in 24 hours. This indicates a desperate race to the shores and the search for cash as the immediate safe haven.
Purchase Opportunity: Historically, the Smart Money starts buying when the retail feeling goes into total collapse.
Don't be fooled by the rhetoric of "everlasting war." Trump does not want a prolonged war in the middle of the year of elections.
My Vision: We are now in the transition between peak climbing rhetoric and the first signs of conditional signaling.
Probable scenario: Climbing intensifies briefly, pushing oil up and actions down, before a sudden change from language to negotiation.
Follow Pattern: Every Trump conflict in the last 13 months has ended with a deal. If the Iranian government doesn't collapse in the next few days, a deal will come back to the table.
Stay objective: Our strategy yielded 5x more than S&P 500 since 2020 precisely for ignoring panic and following these institutional standards.
Premium access: The Allocation Guide for the next STEP!
Step involves the emergence of signs of conditional unscalation. In the ExpertFX Member Area, you have full access to the Real-time Institutional Silver, Gold and Bitcoin Liquidity Map!
It is not the liquidity of the market.
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Traders, to navigate Iran's current volatility, it is not enough to look at the graph; it is necessary to understand the trading pattern of the White House. We analyzed each geopolitical and commercial conflict since Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025. What we see is not random chaos, but a tactic of historical and predictable negotiation.
By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst
This is your guide for the next 2 to 4 weeks of market.
Trump's pattern follows rigid steps that aim at a single goal: TO MAKE AN AGREEMENT.
All conflict begins with messages in Truth Social asking for an "agreement" and threats from "great armed". It's the phase of pure psychological pressure to force the opponent to the negotiating table.
Trump reinforces credibility with visible movement of troops or assets without firing the total conflict. We saw it in Venezuela and the acquisition of 10% of Intel, which yielded 80% profit in two months after the initial threats.
Weight announcements, strikes or sudden policy changes occur almost always on Friday nights. This provides a weekend buffer for investors and governments to digest the news before the opening of futures. The attack on Iran on 28 February followed exactly this pattern.
Markets open on Sunday night with violent movements. Initially, the market doubts the longevity of the conflict because "Trump likes agreements", disjoining part of the movement on Monday.
When the market tries to "buy the dive" waiting for a retreat, Trump doubles the bet using terms like wars that can last "forever". It's a negotiation tactic to show that he can take more than his opponent.
At this stage (where we are today, March 3rd), the market stops taking on a short engagement. Brent oil rises above $85, the Dow Jones falls (more than - 1,100 points. Today) and panic becomes structural.
After the risk award explodes, Trump introduces a calibrated unscaled language. He does not back down, but signals that negotiations are possible if certain criteria are met.
Trump monitors the bags and the price of gasoline. A long war that raises oil to $120-$130 (JPMorgan estimate) would destroy your target of lowering gasoline to $2.00/galon. When those limits are reached, the probability of a deal goes off.
The conflict concludes with a negotiated outcome framed as a strategic victory. The structure varies, but the narrative is always: "maximum pressure produced concessions".
Trump uses the weekend as a buffer for institutions and governments to digest the shock before the markets reopen.
21 June: U.S. and Israeli air strikes at Iran's nuclear sites.
1 September: U.S. military attacks on drug boats in the Caribbean.
10 October: Threat of 100% tariffs on China.
November 29th: Total closure of Venezuela's airspace.
December 25th: Military action in Nigeria.
28 February: U.S. air strikes in Iran (event that killed Khamenei).
When these events take place on the weekend, the price discovery becomes disorderly.
Gold (XAU/USD): We saw the Weekend Gold explode to $5,425 After the February 28 attack, jumping over all our technical resistance.
Oil: The closure of Rumaila and the risk in the Strait of Ormuz creates a pressure that is usually priced violently at the opening of Sunday at 6:00 ET.
Trump is highly responsive to drastic movements in financial markets. By acting on the weekend, it prevents algorithms from amplifying volatility in real time, which could generate a panic that feeds on itself during business hours.
Once the agreement is credible, uncertainty collapses and markets react abruptly and violently. It's the moment the oil drops and the stock goes off, as we've seen in previous episodes of 2025.
Trump is highly responsive to stock performance and energy prices.
Conflicting Priorities: Prolonged war would destroy three of its central promises: to be the 'president of peace', to eliminate inflation and to lower petrol for the $2.00/galon.
Critical Threshold: If Brent gets over it $90, the S&P 500 drops more than - Five percent or the gasoline goes up +10%, the likelihood of trading headlines increases substantially.
Risk of Ormuz: JPMorgan estimates that the total closure of the Ormuz Strait would lead the oil to $120-$130 and the US ICP ~5%.
A clear sign that Smart Money is in position is the recent behavior of metals.
Gold and Silver Fall: Even with the increased risk, Silver has fallen -20% in 24 hours. This indicates a desperate race to the shores and the search for cash as the immediate safe haven.
Purchase Opportunity: Historically, the Smart Money starts buying when the retail feeling goes into total collapse.
Don't be fooled by the rhetoric of "everlasting war." Trump does not want a prolonged war in the middle of the year of elections.
My Vision: We are now in the transition between peak climbing rhetoric and the first signs of conditional signaling.
Probable scenario: Climbing intensifies briefly, pushing oil up and actions down, before a sudden change from language to negotiation.
Follow Pattern: Every Trump conflict in the last 13 months has ended with a deal. If the Iranian government doesn't collapse in the next few days, a deal will come back to the table.
Stay objective: Our strategy yielded 5x more than S&P 500 since 2020 precisely for ignoring panic and following these institutional standards.
Premium access: The Allocation Guide for the next STEP!
Step involves the emergence of signs of conditional unscalation. In the ExpertFX Member Area, you have full access to the Real-time Institutional Silver, Gold and Bitcoin Liquidity Map!
It is not the liquidity of the market.