Trade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handle

• DAX is attempting a recovery following a 6% drop.
• The global energy shock is fueling stagflation anxiety, notably causing a record 12% plummet in the South Korean KOSPI index.
• Market performance is mixed: Technology and defense stocks are providing upward momentum, while disappointing earnings from Adidas and Bayer are weighing on the index.
• The technical outlook is bullish, with buyers returning to test the 24000 psychological level, hinting at a potential move to the upside.

Read More: Is Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) second $70k rejection a “buy the dip” opportunity?

The DAX index is attempting a recovery today following two sessions of aggressive selling driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Market sentiment saw a slight boost after President Trump suggested the US Navy might escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic chokepoint currently remains at a standstill, causing significant disruptions to global energy flows.

Despite the diplomatic overtures, oil prices have continued their ascent climbing 14.5% so far this week, while European natural gas prices have surged a staggering 60% over the last two days following the shutdown of Qatari LNG facilities and the closure of the Strait.The economic impact of these spikes is being felt acutely across energy-dependent regions.

While the DAX shed 6% over the last two sessions, the South Korean Kospi plummeted 12% overnight, reflecting a growing global anxiety over potential stagflation. This is the KOSPI benchmarks largest drop on record as South Korea is heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil.

Over two days the tech-heavy index has lost more than 18% of its value while the currency KRW has slumped to a 17-year low.

The trajectory of the market now hinges on the duration of the conflict and whether energy prices ease. A prolonged standoff increases the risk of a sustained energy shock, which could cement the stagflationary pressures currently being priced in by traders.

According to sources, Qatar would need 2 weeks to restart gas liquefaction after a full shutdown. Once restarted, Qatar would need at least another 2 weeks to reach full capacity, which could lead to a temporary shock in prices if the conflict was to reach a swift conclusion.

Performance within the DAX remains a mixed bag of sector-specific reactions and corporate earnings.

Technology stocks are providing some upward momentum, with Infineon Technologies rising 3.7%, while defense stocks are seeing a modest recovery.

However, individual earnings reports are weighing on the index; Adidas shares dropped 7% on disappointing results (now down 5%), and Bayer fell 4.76% after providing a weak 2026 profit outlook that overshadowed a fourth-quarter earnings beat.

The DAX selloff saw the index drop below the psychological 24000 handle for the first time since December 2025.

The foray has proved short-lived thus far with buyers returning as the index tested the descending channel it broke out of in December 2025.

On the daily chart, the current daily candle is eyeing a close back above 24000 while at the same time printing an inside bar hammer candle.

This would hint at a move to the upside in the days ahead.

DAX Index Daily Chart, March 4, 2026

For those looking to get involved, we drop down to a one-hour chart.

Price is caught between the 20 and 50-day MAs with a retest of the 24000 handle presenting the best risk to reward opportunity for would be bulls.

If such a pullback does not materialize, traders may wait for a break of the 50-Day MA at 24210 and look for an opportunity to get involved with targets resting at the 100-day MA around 24700 and potentially 25000 as well.

DAX Index, One-Hour Chart, March 4, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.