Ontario nuclear plan could boost uranium mining

[Ben Graham]

Ontario is preparing to expand its nuclear energy capacity to meet rising electricity demand, a move that could support uranium consumption and create opportunities for critical-mineral development.

The Energy for Generations plan, released this month, sets out Ontario’s integrated long-term strategy to modernize the grid, expand transmission and guide power supply as demand is expected to rise by 75% by 2050. The framework aligns with previously announced nuclear spending, including Ontario Power Generation (OPG)’s C$20.9 billion ($15 billion) commitment for small modular reactors, and could encompass 10,000 megawatts (MW) of additional nuclear capacity.

“We’re leading the largest nuclear expansion in a generation, including new large-scale builds, the largest on the continent, and the G7’s first small modular [reactor],” Minister of Energy and Mines Stephen Lecce said at the Canadian Club in Toronto on June 12. “Nuclear is our homegrown advantage.”

Ontario, Canada’s main nuclear power province, wants to expand transmission to supply major mining developments, including projects in the Ring of Fire region. It also must contend with industrial demand for electricity forecast to rise 50% in the next five years. With provincial trade barriers poised to fall, it could source uranium from Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin, a global hotspot for production where companies such as Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) and Denison Mines (TSX: DML; NYSE: DNN) operate.

Capacity potential

OPG has budgeted for up to four 300-MW small modular reactors (SMRs) at Darlington station about 70 km east of Toronto, with the first unit scheduled to be in service by 2029 or 2030. The SMR commitment was announced by OPG in January 2024 and aligns with the broader new strategy. Additional large-scale reactors are under study at Bruce Power on the shore of Lake Huron near Kincardine, though no firm capacity targets or budgets have been set.

A buildout of up to 10,000 MW could cost more than $150 billion, based on industry estimates of $10,000 to $15,000 per kilowatt for new nuclear construction. Those estimates are consistent with cost ranges reported by S&P Global in 2023.

“Our fuels, our components, our engineering, our skilled workers, our isotopes—Ontario’s nuclear supply chain is world class,” Lecce said.

The plan also proposes building new east-west transmission corridors to support energy security and critical-mineral development.

Analysts suggest the nuclear expansion could sustain long-term uranium demand. Global consumption is forecast to rise nearly 30% by 2030 and close to 200% by 2040, according to S&P Global. The uranium spot price has hovered around $88 to $90 per lb. this month, steady after retreating from above $100 earlier in 2025 amid supply concerns and subsequent easing.

Mineral links

“Infrastructure that connects our provinces, unlocks our potential as a federation, and finally gets on with building one strong Canadian economy,” Lecce said.

Ontario’s approach to SMR sourcing could help establish “a fixed-price, economic supply chain foundation for future builds,” said Chris Thompson, an analyst at eResearch, based in Toronto.

Some experts note challenges, including Ontario’s lack of uranium enrichment facilities, reliance on foreign suppliers, and the risk of cost overruns and delays that have affected SMR projects internationally, as highlighted by the US Congressional Research Service. Even so, Lecce said the province is determined to move forward.

“This is our plan, our economic plan,” Lecce said. “It’s also our commitment that Ontario will lead and build and power the future of Canada.”