Bitcoin Holds Below $110K as IBCI Suggests Market in Transition Phase

Bitcoin continues to trade in a range just below its recent all-time high, maintaining a relatively stable price structure despite broader market fluctuations.

As of the time of writing, BTC is priced at approximately $105,756, reflecting a 1% drop in the past 24 hours and a 5.4% decline from its record peak of over $111,000 reached last month.

The asset has been consolidating within this band for several weeks, with no clear breakout yet in sight, indicating a moment of uncertainty or possible transition in market direction. A CryptoQuany analyst known as Gaah has offered insights into this phase of the cycle.

Bitcoin IBCI Suggests Cycle Is Ongoing, Not Exhausted

Gaah recently published an analysis on the QuickTake platform, focusing on Bitcoin’s IBCI (Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators). According to the post, the IBCI surged above 75% earlier this year during Bitcoin’s rally from late 2023 to early 2024, entering what’s known as the “distribution region.”

Following the correction in BTC price, the IBCI has now leveled around the 50% mark, traditionally viewed as a neutral zone that often precedes major trend changes.

The IBCI’s current position, according to Gaah, may signal a transitional point in the ongoing market cycle. Historically, when the indicator stabilizes in the mid-range, it often reflects the end of a market pullback and the potential beginning of a new upward phase.

Gaah noted that over the past decade, Bitcoin’s bullish phases typically concluded only when the IBCI reached and remained in the 100% zone.

As this condition has not yet been met, the present consolidation could be laying the groundwork for another leg up, contingent on supportive on-chain metrics and broader ecosystem momentum.

The analyst also suggested that the lack of extreme sentiment, whether bullish or bearish, reinforces the view that the market is still evolving rather than nearing a peak.

Suppose BTC price manages to push higher while the IBCI trends back toward the 75%–100 % region. In that case, it may indicate a return to the distribution zone and a continuation of the current bull cycle.

Exchange Activity Remains Subdued as Retail Interest Stalls

In a separate analysis shared on CryptoQuant by another contributor, caueconomy, recent trends in trading activity were examined. Despite Bitcoin trading near historical highs, spot volume across centralized exchanges has dropped to multi-year lows.

While the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs has shifted some volume away from exchanges, the data also reflects limited retail engagement, especially with altcoins. This pattern suggests that current market participation is more aligned with institutional players or long-term holders, rather than speculative retail traders.

Caueconomy concluded that these subdued volumes are not typical of euphoric market phases. Instead, they indicate a more measured participation in the market, which may delay the formation of a local top.

However, should there be a renewed surge in trading activity, especially from retail investors, it could serve as a signal of a maturing cycle or the onset of another significant price move.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView