Bitcoin Repeats Its 2021 Pattern—Analyst Warns Final Crash Still Ahead

[Ben Graham]

Bitcoin rallied above $105,000 in mid-morning European trading on Tuesday, clawing back losses sustained over the weekend after dipping below six figures for the first time since May. Yet the respite may prove fleeting, says veteran technician Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend).

Bitcoin Price Mirrors 2021

On side-by-side charts of the current cycle and the 2021-to-2024 arc, the analyst argued that Bitcoin is “the same exact pattern—run-up, one high, back down, second high,” followed by an ABC corrective sequence that in 2021 bottomed only after a second, deeper flush. “Gut says no,” he told viewers when asked whether last Friday’s sell-off had already marked capitulation. “We’ve been talking about this ABC since March… people were calling for new lows; I said nope, we got five waves at the top, we got an ABC and then we go— and that’s when the alts take off.”

His base case now envisions a relief rally toward the $107,000–$108,000 band—the level where a trend-line projected from the two post-halving peaks intersects—before a final leg lower drives price into what he calls the “pain box” sandwiched between the 0.702 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements of the entire rally from last October’s $58,000 breakout. In 2021 that zone ultimately wicked to the exact 0.618, a move he believes could repeat, implying spot levels between roughly $96,500 and $92,000. “This measurement fits the parameter now… if it wants to turn around and rip, great,” he conceded, “but there’s still a very good chance that was not the end.”

Internally, the analyst parses the current drop as the developing C-wave of a larger flat, subdividing into a classic five-wave impulse. Wave three, he notes, appears complete; wave four “could come up high,” granting altcoins a short-lived pop, “but hopefully, again, sooner than later, we roll over.” He cites 2021’s July fractal, when Bitcoin bounced 20% before sliding a final time, as a psychological template. “When there’s a big news narrative event,” he observed, “we’ll get a little relief—people think it’s done—then wham, one more thing to scare retail.”

Macro sentiment, he argues, remains fragile. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap at $92,000 is drawing “average-retail” bids, a setup he characterises as a “washing machine” in which professional money fronts liquidity only to fade it. “Retail is just a washing machine, man… that buy isn’t going to get filled,” he warned. Still, he reiterated long-term optimism, revealing he “hammered some buys” during Monday’s dip and advising his followers to dollar-cost average—“not financial advice”—through the turbulence.

Quantum Ascend’s upside target for the ensuing impulsive advance is comparatively restrained: $132,000, a level he says enjoys “two pieces of confluence” and would coincide with “the alts moment” when Bitcoin dominance finally cracks. “We will eventually work our way back up near the top of this B-wave… flag a little, and then boom,” he predicted, referencing November 2021’s so-called “Trump pump” that ignited a multisector altcoin surge.

For now, traders watch the 0.702–0.618 pocket and the mooted relief ceiling at $108,000. Should Bitcoin slice through support without that interim bounce, the analyst says, the flush could conclude “sooner than later,” clearing the runway for what he calls “the next few months—our moment.” In his sign-off he urged viewers to “be an adult, live through it,” but also confessed palpable excitement: “I feel really good about where we’re at.” Whether the market shares his confidence will likely become clear once the final C-wave verdict arrives—perhaps, he hopes, within the week.

At press time, BTC traded at $105,077.