USDJPY slides as War flows are now behind us

Ben Graham · June 24, 2025

The most volatile major currency pair delivered another textbook session, marked by two-handle swings over consecutive days.

After a brief show of strength, the U.S. Dollar resumed its broader decline against most major currencies.

The post-war reversal was continued further after today's speech from Fed Chair Powell at the US Congress, in which he offered no fresh signals regarding a rate cut at the July 30 FOMC meeting—a message that markets are watching closely.

The absence of new dovish guidance was interpreted as a continuation of the current policy stance, prompting traders to resume the prevailing bearish trend on the Greenback.

The Japanese Yen, which had underperformed during the USD's initial rally, staged a sharp comeback. Its V-shaped reversal has pushed it to the second-best spot among major currencies in the current North American session, close to tied the Swiss Franc.

USDJPY is now back inside its two-month range after a false breakout to the upside.

Explore the technical zones of interest as the pair recalibrates.

Read More: US Dollar slides on de-escalation of Iran tensions

USDJPY Multi-Timeframe analysis from Daily to 1H Charts

USDJPY Daily Chart – Rejection wicks bring the pair down

USDJPY slides as War flows are now behind us - ExpertFX School

USDJPY is officially back in its daily range between 142.00 and 146.00 mentioned in our preceding analysis.

Both bullish breakout attempts have been swiftly rejected, reinforcing the strength of the current range. The longer the market remains within this zone, the more price-volume builds up, reinforcing the perception of fair value and further validating the range's upper and lower bounds through a self-fulfilling dynamic.

With traders awaiting clearer guidance from the Bank of Japan and anticipating potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the path of least resistance remains sideways within the ongoing four-handle consolidation.

Momentum indicators remain neutral, and the 20 and 50-day moving averages continue to act as magnets, capping price action just below the key psychological level at 145.00.

USDJPY 4H Chart

The Yen has found strength again after the volatile swing in the US Dollar. One important factor to mention is how buyers failed to bring the pair to early May highs (148.27), giving some technical strength for sellers to correct the pair further.

The current 4H Candle is one of indecision, with the descent stalled at the 50-Period 4H MA.

Momentum went from extremely overbought to just below neutral with the V-Shape reversal in prices.

USDJPY 1H Chart

A tight bear channel after the market pricing of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict is stalling at the 144.50 current pivot.

The MA 20 is now sloping down and a bull bars failing to break above preceding bear bars indicate that sellers have gained back control of the flows.

Momentum is however in oversold territory, prompting some consolidation before any potential continuation.

Any reversal back up from here hints at the 145.30 intermediate resistance in confluence with the 1H MA 20.

A bearish continuation below the pivot would look to a test of the 143.50 Support Zone.

Safe Trades!

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