Dow leads US Indices on strong Manufacturing PMI beat

Ben Graham · July 1, 2025

The Dow is outperforming all major U.S. indices, fueled by a stronger-than-expected U.S. Manufacturing PMI report in today's session. The data, released at 10:00 ET, came in at 52.9 versus the forecasted 52, signaling not just expansion, but some form of resilience in the sector.

S&P Global’s Chief Business Economist commented:

“June saw a welcome return to growth for U.S. manufacturing production after three months of decline, with higher workloads driven by rising orders from domestic and export customers. Reviving demand has also encouraged factories to hire additional staff at a rate not seen since September 2022.”

This uptick in manufacturing momentum suggests that the feared economic damage from tariffs may have been overstated, though price pressures remain very real.

The latest JOLTS report, which showed continued labor market strength, added to the bullish tone. As a result, market sentiment improved, with the Healthcare and Consumer Defensive sectors leading gains, while names like NVIDIA and Tesla continue to feel pressure from ongoing political scrutiny.

As cyclical sectors outshine tech, the Dow Jones has taken the lead among U.S. indices, currently up 1% on the session.

Dow leads US Indices on strong Manufacturing PMI beat - ExpertFX School

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Dow Jones Daily Chart

The Dow Jones is the only major US index to not have surpassed its all-time highs, and current data and flows are supporting the advent of new ATH in the US 30.

The Dow is on its 7th consecutive bullish candle, powering through the 44,000 level and heading towards 45,000 which may just happen as long as the mood keeps turning more positive.

As a reminder, the All-time highs on the US 30 CFD is at 45,060, close to 1% away from current trading.

The Daily MA 20 is just crossing above the 200 MA, another sign of strength for bulls that are taking control of equity markets again – RSI is in overbought territory however, but won't change much until buyers actually start slowing down.

Dow Jones 1H Chart

The uptrend is intact particularly with strong momentum – RSI retracts only to the neutral zone before heading higher on impulsive bull moves, a sign of a stable trend, further supported by upward sloping Moving averages.

1H Charts are currently showing overbought and signs of momentum somehow slowing, however as long as there is no clear correction in prices, the continuing the uptrend stays the most probable path.

Some levels to look for in current trading for the index:

Resistance Zones

44,600 Daily Highs to surpass
44,900 to 45,060 ATH Resistance Zone
45,600 potential resistance from Fibonacci Extensions

Support Zones

44,000 current pivot (+/- 100 points)
43,500 psychological level
43,000 Main Support Zone in confluence with 1H MA 200

Safe Trades!

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