North American Markets in euphory ahead of July NFP – NA markets mid-week update

Ben Graham · July 2, 2025

Markets have officially turned the page on the Israel-Iran conflict, which ended in a ceasefire last Monday. Since then, equity bulls have pushed major indices to fresh all-time highs, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both reaching new peaks over the past week.

The Canadian TSX is also benefiting from the improved sentiment, touching a record high of 26,885 just today.

The Dow Jones, which had lagged behind in recent rallies, is now catching up—trading close to 1% away from its own all-time highs.

Adding to the optimism are recent trade deals from the Trump administration, including finalized agreements with Vietnam and the official enactment of the US-UK Trade Deal. US Treasury Deputy Faulkender noted that “plenty of deals” are nearing completion and may be announced in the coming weeks.

North American markets are experiencing lighter trading volumes this week, as many traders take time off during the shortened holiday schedule—following Canada Day on Monday and ahead of US Independence Day on Friday.

In the meantime, markets are preparing for the release of the July Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report tomorrow morning.

The data will offer critical insight into the current state of the US labor market, and could further shape expectations around monetary policy heading into the second half of the year.

North American Equity Indices Snapshot

North American Markets in euphory ahead of July NFP – NA markets mid-week update - ExpertFX School

As mentioned in the introduction, all North-American Equity Markets are in a frenzy with most of them marking fresh record highs this week.

Current Highs in NA Indices (CFDs):

S&P 500 – 6,233 ATH
Nasdaq – 22,751 ATH
Dow Jones – 45,060 (1.15% away, weekly highs 44,705)
Canada's TSX – 26,885

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

The Greenback has once again been struggling throughout the beginning of this week against most majors – It is only up against the British Pound, in the latest mess-up from the British House of Commons leading to a major selloff in Gilts.

GBPUSD fell by almost 2,000 pips this morning and recovered about 1000 pips since, this trading pair is looking less strong after this move than it was in last week's analysis.

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

The Loonie is actually recovering quite well in this week's Forex action after having lagged in the past weeks against its counterparts.

CAD is up against all majors except for the AUD & the CHF. Both currencies have been showing a lot of strength as both Swiss and Australian funds are rebalancing their funds out of the US.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

The NA Pair is still maintain its downward trend and holding in its hourly descending channel mentioned in this week's USDCAD Analysis.

Prices just breached the 1.36 Psychological Level and it seems that unless the US Dollar appreciates from a NFP report that brings it some strength, technicals seem to indicate that further downside can be expected – Bears will have to break through the Current support and last swing lows at 1.3540.

Levels to watch for the pair:

Support Levels:

Higher Timeframe Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.36
Last Swing Lows: 1.3540

Resistance Levels:

Pivot zone 1.3675 to 1.3686 coinciding with the 4H MA 50
1.3740 Pivot turned Resistance

US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week

Except for tomorrow's much anticipated NFP release and high-tier ISM Services PMI data, markets won't be expecting much (as if tomorrow morning's session was not enough!)

For past data, both Canadian and US PMI data points came out relatively weak and all are showing contraction, which translates well with the previous weeks' poor currency performance by both the CAD and the USD.

Safe Trades for the big session ahead!

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