Bitcoin Hits $123K, But Market Euphoria Has Yet to Kick In, Says Analyst

[Ben Graham]

Bitcoin has reached new milestones this week, briefly breaking above the $123,000 mark earlier today before retracing slightly to $121,812 at the time of writing. This follows a week of strong gains, with BTC rising by more than 10% amid a broader uptrend in the cryptocurrency market.

Despite the minor pullback, market analysts are closely monitoring on-chain and derivatives data to assess whether momentum is building toward a more aggressive phase of the rally.

The recent surge has also benefited the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, lifting total global crypto market capitalization to just under $4 trillion.

While Bitcoin continues to dominate in terms of volume and influence, sentiment metrics suggest that traders and investors may still be approaching with measured optimism. According to analysts, several indicators are now pointing to a potential shift in market dynamics that could influence Bitcoin’s next major move.

Market Euphoria Not Yet Confirmed

CryptoQuant contributor Joao Wedson has offered insights into the current structure of the Bitcoin market through an analysis of the price gap between spot and perpetual futures contracts on Binance.

In a recent QuickTake post, Wedson noted that the spot price of Bitcoin continues to outpace the perpetual futures price, a sign that market sentiment has not yet tipped into full euphoria. Historically, a positive gap between the two markets has signaled increased speculative activity and the onset of parabolic rallies.

“The gap is still in negative territory,” Wedson stated, “but the narrowing trend indicates that sentiment may be transitioning from cautious to more optimistic.”

The analysis implies that traders in the futures market have yet to aggressively price in further upside, possibly waiting for stronger confirmation before deploying leverage. Should this gap flip to positive territory, it could be interpreted as a sign of increased risk appetite, potentially fueling a sharper upward move.

Wedson also emphasized the importance of monitoring how derivatives markets respond in the coming days. “If the trend continues and flips positive, we could see a more intense phase of the rally driven by leveraged traders,” he wrote.

Until then, the current environment appears to reflect a market in the process of building a foundation, rather than one that has already entered a euphoric phase.

Bitcoin Profit-Taking Remains Measured

In another analysis, CryptoQuant’s Enigma Trader examined the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key indicator used to evaluate the extent of realized profits by Bitcoin holders.

According to the post, SOPR levels have remained moderately above 1 as BTC hit new highs, suggesting that some profit-taking is occurring, but not at a rate that disrupts the broader trend. The analyst observed that a spike in SOPR around July 3–4 coincided with short-term holders taking profits.

However, this activity did not result in significant downward pressure on price. “This behavior points to a healthy price discovery process,” Enigma Trader noted, adding that such conditions typically support continued upward movement when demand remains intact.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView