Pound under pressure ahead of US, UK inflation reports

[Ben Graham]

The British pound has edged up higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3453, up 0.21% on the day. Earlier, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.3416, its lowest level since June 23.

UK inflation expected at 3.4%

All eyes will be on the UK inflation report for June, which will be released on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4% y/y, as is core CPI at 3.5%. Monthly, both the headline rates are expected to stay steady at 0.2%.

Has the BoE's battle to lower inflation stalled? The BoE was looking good in March, when inflation eased to 2.6%, but CPI has rebounded to 3.4%, well above the BoE's inflation target of 2%. Services data has been especially sticky, although it dropped to 4.7% in May, down from 5.4% a month earlier.

At 3.4%, inflation is stuck at its highest level since February 2024 and that will complicate plans at the BoE to renew interest rate cuts in order to kick-start the weak UK economy. The central bank has lowered rates twice this year and would like to continue trimming the current cash rate of 4.25%. The Bank meets next on Aug. 7 and Wednesday's inflation data could be a significant factor in the rate decision.

US CPI expected to accelerate

In the US, if June inflation data rises as is expected, fingers will quickly point to President Trump's tariffs as finally having an impact. Recent inflation reports have not shown a significant spike higher due to the tariffs, which were first imposed in April. However, the tariffs may have needed time to filter throughout the economy and could be felt for the first time in the June inflation reading.

The Fed meets next on July 30, with the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a hold, according to CME's FedWatch. For September, the odds of a rate cut stand at 59%. Today's inflation report could cause a shift in these numbers.

GBPUSD Technical

GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.3454 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.3484

1.3396 and 1.3366 are the next support levels

GBPUSD 1-Day Chart, July 15, 2025

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