Citi sees $40 silver soon, but cautious on gold

[Ben Graham]

Analysts at Citigroup see silver prices rallying beyond $40 an ounce in the coming months due to tightening physical supplies and growing investment demand.

In a note published Wednesday, analysts led by Max Layton raised their three-month silver price forecast from $38 to $40, citing the metal’s strong fundamentals. They also upgraded silver’s longer-term outlook, with a price target of $43 for the next six to 12 months.

“We expect silver availability to tighten on consecutive years of deficit, sticky stockholders requiring higher prices to sell, and robust investment demand,” the Citi analysts wrote.

Silver has risen by more than 30% this year, outpacing its sister metal gold, as investors seek to expand their exposure to safe-haven assets in the midst of a global trade war. About half of silver’s gains were recorded in June, during which the metal surpassed $39 an ounce for the first time since 2011 and ended the month 10% higher.

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Commenting on the recent silver price rally, Citi analysts emphasized that it is “not just a catch-up trade to gold” but also a reflection of strong silver fundamentals.

Silver will also advance “on the back of Fed cuts,” the Citi analysts said, referring to expected monetary-policy easing by the US Federal Reserve.

Gold warning

While a potential monetary easing would also support gold, Citi is more cautious on the traditional safe-haven metal, which has rallied over 27% in 2025 on strong central bank buying and exchange-traded fund inflows.

“We continue to highlight our view that we may have seen gold price highs,” the analysts wrote in the note, referencing the record high of $3,500 an ounce achieved back in April.

The anticipated pullback in gold, as outlined in the bank’s June report, stems from weakening investment demand, improving economic prospects and anticipated US interest rate cuts.

As such, the bank is maintaining its forecast of gold consolidating above $3,000 over the upcoming quarter before declining below that level next year. In the second half of 2026, analysts including Layton are predicting gold to fall further into the $2,500-$2,700 range.