Bitcoin Recovers to $119K But Key Indicators Show Mixed Signals

[Ben Graham]

Bitcoin has begun to recover after a brief decline triggered by the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. On July 15, the asset dropped to a low of $116,000 in response to news that inflation rose to 2.7% in June, amid continued concerns over tariffs from the Trump administration.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $118,439, reflecting a 1.8% gain over the past 24 hours, which suggests that some investor confidence has returned to the market despite recent volatility.

This short-term rebound occurs amid increasing on-chain and market activity, which analysts are closely tracking. One such contributor, Trader Oasis, recently published an analysis on CryptoQuant outlining various indicators tied to Bitcoin’s current movement.

Bitcoin Open Interest, Price Divergence, and Institutional Signals

The analyst explored a range of technical and behavioral metrics, including open interest, Coinbase premium index, and funding rates, that are influencing BTC’s recent price behavior and hinting at what may lie ahead.

Trader Oasis began by noting that Bitcoin’s breach of the $107,000 resistance signaled the beginning of a potential distribution phase. He pointed out that a divergence between price and open interest acted as a preliminary bullish signal, preceding the asset’s climb.

The current state, where both price and open interest are rising in tandem, is seen by some as a sign of strengthening momentum in the market.

He also evaluated data from the Coinbase Premium Index, which remains above zero, typically seen as an indication of institutional demand. However, Oasis observed that the indicator’s flat behavior, even as price rises, could imply large entities are securing profits.

He further suggested that a breakout above the descending trend line could trigger a stronger upward move, but a fall below zero might represent a new entry signal.

Regarding funding rates, he noted that the current rise reflects renewed market confidence, although it is still below previous extreme levels. This, in his view, implies that while enthusiasm exists, excessive leverage is not yet present.

Profit-Taking Rises as Binance Dominates Realized Flows

A separate analysis by another CryptoQuant contributor, Crazzyblockk, looked at the realized profit and loss (PnL) across centralized exchanges. According to the data, Bitcoin investors realized $9.29 billion in profits in a single day, marking a record high for such flows.

This surge in realized PnL reflects widespread profit-taking in the wake of Bitcoin’s recent price rally, especially among short-term holders.

On Binance specifically, the realized PnL remains below its all-time highs but has seen a rising share compared to other exchanges. Data shows that on some days, Binance’s share of realized profits has reached up to 60%, reinforcing its growing importance in shaping market behavior.

Crazzyblockk concluded that this concentrated profit-taking, led by Binance users, could indicate a shift in market dynamics, noting:

Binance’s increasing dominance in realized PnL flows reinforces its critical role in market sentiment and liquidity. For traders and analysts, it is crucial to closely monitor Binance’s on-chain activity alongside other exchanges to stay ahead of potential volatility.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView