EURUSD selloff deepens as yearly highs fade from view

[Ben Graham]

The Euro had been on a strong run this year, and only a few events could stop its uptrend in the first half of 2025.

Between new infrastructure deals, unification behind the Ukrainian cause, and the constant mess-ups from the Trump Administration, EUR/USD had many reasons go higher.

But Markets are forward-looking, and all these factors have been priced in, with sellers now heavily grabbing control of the price action: The latest EU-US Deal is considered disadvantageous for the EU, and this is turning into a sell-the-fact trade.

The pair's end-June rally has not seen any retracement, and the ongoing selloff is about to make this final up-move to the 1.1830 highs vanish.

The question is: Is the ongoing rally in the US Dollar strong enough to keep pushing the pair down further?

Let’s take a look at the technical patterns moving EUR/USD.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart, July 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Pound had led major currencies in the ongoing sell-offs for US Dollar buybacks.

In our most recent US Dollar analysis, we pointed to the formation of a double top. Over the past two sessions, markets haven’t taken it lightly—we are now about three handles lower from the past week's highs.

A daily close right at the Current Pivot Zone 1.16 to 1.1650 after a 1.30% correction in yesterday’s session was followed by another strong selling candle, now breaching below the 50-Day Moving Average.

Daily RSI momentum is now becoming bearish as the sellers bring the pair around the 1.15 Main support Zone.

Let’s take a closer look.

EUR/USD 4H Chart

EUR/USD 4H Chart, July 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Sellers have had full control since the weekly open, sending the pair in a 2.12% correction.

The ongoing selloff is forming a tight bear channel, and with candles closing at their extremes, momentum is strong. Some mean reversion is currently trying to take place as the 4H RSI is turning oversold.

The 1.15 Support Zone is located just below the psychological level, so reactions as prices arrive in this region will be essential to track – any consolidation in the zone would be considered more bearish than an actual retracement higher but the idea right now is to keep an eye on the ongoing move.

Levels of interest to place on your charts:

Support Levels:

• 1.15 Support Zone (encompassing - 300 pips)
• 1.1350 to 1.14 Support in confluence with the 100-Day EMA
• 1.12 to 1.13 Main Support Zone

Resistance Levels:

• Current Pivot Zone 1.16 to 1.1650
• 1.1660 MA 50 and 200 Confluence
• 2020 Resistance around the 1.18 Zone
• 1.1830 2025 Highs

EUR/USD 1H Chart

EUR/USD 1H Chart, July 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Markets are awaiting to see what happens to the US Dollar after the JOLTS report coming up in about 10 minutes – In the meantime, the selling seems to be slowing down after touching the 1.1520 lows.

Any strong close below warrants a further continuation towards the bottom of the support zone (between 1.1470 to 1.1450).

Reversals on a weaker USD would point to the Pivot Zone – Also consider the 1H MA 50 currently at 1.1650 and catching up to the prices fastly amid this flash-selloff.


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