Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? Cooling Futures Market Hints at Possible Breakout

[Ben Graham]

Bitcoin (BTC) remains within a tight trading range following a recent pullback from its all-time high. At the time of writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is priced at $118,570, reflecting a 0.3% increase over the past 24 hours.

Recent analysis shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform by market contributor ShayanMarkets highlights a noticeable change in Bitcoin’s futures market activity.

According to the analyst, while previous price surges in the $70,000–$90,000 range were marked by significant speculative pressure and leverage buildup, the current trend shows signs of cooling despite elevated price levels. This shift could play a key role in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin Futures Market Shows Signs of Normalization

ShayanMarkets explained that during past rallies, the futures market displayed what he called “heating and overheating phases,” often visible in red clusters on the volume bubble map. These periods typically led to corrections or temporary price consolidations as leveraged positions unwound.

However, the current data reflects a different setup. Despite Bitcoin remaining near record highs, futures market activity has transitioned to neutral and cooling phases, shown by grey and green bubbles on the chart.

The analyst noted that this cooling phase could be a sign of de-risking among traders, as speculative activity eases while spot demand supports the price. In a statement on QuickTake, ShayanMarkets said:

This reset in leverage, despite BTC staying above $100K, signals healthier market conditions as demand shifts toward organic buying rather than high-risk speculative bets.

The analyst added that if the reduced speculative pressure continues, it could provide the foundation for another significant price increase, potentially setting Bitcoin up to break past its previous all-time high above $123K.

Long-Term Whales Take Profits Amid Price Stability

Meanwhile, another analysis from CryptoQuant contributor CoinCare revealed selling activity from long-term Bitcoin holders, often referred to as “whales,” who have maintained their positions for over a decade.

According to CoinCare, some of these holders, including those who first accumulated Bitcoin around 2013, have started to liquidate a portion of their holdings.

This selling activity aligns with the historical timeline of Bitcoin’s sharp rise from under $100 to roughly $1,000 during that period, representing a potential 117,900% return for early adopters.

Such profit-taking from early investors is not unusual during periods of elevated prices and does not necessarily indicate a shift in long-term market sentiment.

Historically, whale activity has influenced short-term volatility but has also contributed to market redistribution, allowing newer participants to enter the market.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView