USD/CHF Technical: Swiss franc’s medium-term bearish trend in progress

[Ben Graham]

The Swiss franc has continued to face downside pressure against the US dollar as it extends its losses in place since last Wednesday, 23 July. In today’s Asia, it shed -0.3% at this time of writing, making it the worst-performing major currency against the greenback.

Swiss franc under pressure as US hikes tariffs to 39%, SNB may turn more dovish

The current onslaught of the Swiss franc has been further reinforced by a higher-than-expected US tariff rate of 39% on Swiss products versus the earlier 31% levy announced in April. The latest 39% tariff slapped on Switzerland by the US White House administration is one of the steepest levies globally, which is likely to trigger a significant adverse economic effect on the export-dependent Swiss economy.

After cutting the interest rate to zero in June, the Swiss central bank (SNB) may be forced to adopt a more dovish monetary policy stance to alleviate the negative impact of the higher tariff rates on Swiss exports. The next SNB monetary policy meeting will be on 25 September 2025.

Let’s now focus our attention on a short to medium-term technical trading set-up on the USD/CHF

Fig 1: USD/CHF medium-term trend as of 1 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks)

Bullish bias for USD/CHF with key medium-term pivotal support at 0.8060 for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 0.8215/8250 and 0.8350/8380 (also a Fibonacci retracement/extension cluster).

Key elements

• Yesterday’s price action has staged a bullish breakout above the upper boundary of a former medium-term descending channel from the 3 February 2025 swing high, and the 50-day moving average. These observations suggest that the medium-term downtrend of the USD/CHF from 13 January 2025 high to 1 July 2025 has ended.
• The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has reached its overbought region (above 70 level) but has not flashed out any bearish divergence condition which indicates that short to medium-term upside momentum remains intact.
• The yield premium between the 2-year US Treasury note over the 2-year Swiss government bond has continued to inch upward steadily since 10 July 2025, which is likely to support further potential up moves on the USD/CHF.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

A break below 0.8060 invalidates the bullish scenario for the USD/CHF to resume its bearish movement to revisit 0.7990 (also the 20-day moving average), and below it exposes the critical 1 July swing low of 0.7870.

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