Gold close to $3,400 maintains a picture of hesitancy in risk-assets

[Ben Graham]

Markets are still rattling about the crazy Friday trading, post-Non-Farm Payrolls.

Equities were trading in paradise territory after a streak of positive US Data (that caught Markets off-guard, Participants were expecting worse data due to tariffs).

But the picture quickly reversed, and markets were starting to trade mostly risk-on in many of the sessions prior to Friday, taking Stocks to Greed territory (on the Fear-Greed Index).

Risk-assets took a beating after the miss (and particularly from the downward revisions for the past few months of data, taking the three-month average for NFP at 35K!

There is some ongoing-mean reversion to Friday's huge selloffs in risk-assets and now our task is to take a look at the big picture to see if the flight-to-safety is just starting or already priced in.

Let's take a look at the broad market before attacking the Gold Technical Analysis.

Read More: Markets Weekly Outlook – US Services PMI, Bank of England rate decision and Canadian/NZ Employment

Global look at the Markets, August 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

On the daily picture, we see that despite Indices opening higher on mean-reversion trading, both Bonds, Gold are also up on the session while Bitcoin stays mixed, below Friday morning levels and Oil is getting sold off aggressively (from fears of lower economic activity).

Despite some banks calling to buy-the-dip (like Morgan Stanley), the time would be more appropriate for caution as there is still about a month-and-a-half period before the next FOMC and a lot of key data expected to get released in the meantime.

Gold multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Gold Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart, August 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

After Friday trading, the picture looks very different from our last analysis on Gold that saw some exhaustion from Bulls and led to a consequent (and short-lived) break below $3,300 – A key mark for immediate bull/bear strength.

Momentum also went from slightly bearish to slightly bullish (with the RSI repassing above the middle lign) and with prices repassing above the 50-Day MA, there is another chance for bulls to regain control of the action.

Repassing above the 2025 upwards trendline would give them full control, while failing to do so would show a more balanced outlook, still giving some chance to sellers to step in.

Gold 4H Chart

Gold 4H Chart, August 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Traders are testing the broken 2025 upwards trendline and reactions will be very interesting here, particularly as this may help participants to decide the appetite for risk or lack thereof for this week.

The price action is currently above the middle of the $3,280 to the $3,420 range – Look at the $3,350 to $3,375 Pivot Zone.

The overnight/morning session buying is seeing a small break marking daily highs at $3,385 – Current trading will be essential to watch.

Consolidating around here without retracements gives more chances for bulls to hold their hand, while rejecting the levels would point to some bearish continuation.

Gold 1H Chart

Gold 1H Chart, August 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Current action on the 1H Charts shows that bulls did break above the 2025 upwards trendline – The rest is to see if they manage to hold current trading levels despite overbought conditions.

Any retracement would still not mark imminent bearish control as long as prices hold above the $3,350 Pivot Zone, different story if there is a daily close below.

This week should be exiting for traders, get ready.

Safe Trades!

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