Is Bitcoin Losing Steam? Analysts Warn of Fragile Market Support

[Ben Graham]

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a steady price decline over the past week, falling by approximately 3.7% as trading activity shows signs of a possible sell-off or profit-taking phase.

After peaking above $123,000 earlier last month, the leading cryptocurrency has been trading within the $113,000 to $114,000 range in the past day. At the time of writing, BTC is valued at $114,420, reflecting uncertainty in market momentum.

Market analysts point to weakening liquidity and inconsistent institutional demand as key factors contributing to the price drop. A recent analysis shared by Arab Chain, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlights several on-chain dynamics that have limited Bitcoin’s ability to maintain price stability despite reduced available supply.

Liquidity Constraints and Market Fragility

According to Arab Chain’s analysis, a sharp collapse in the liquidity inventory ratio began in mid-July, falling to levels representing just over three months of available supply on major trading platforms.

This metric tracks how much Bitcoin is accessible for sale relative to the pace of market activity. Normally, reduced supply would lead to upward price pressure. However, Arab Chain notes that insufficient new demand left the market vulnerable, resulting in the opposite effect.

“When liquidity is thin and there is no consistent buying activity from large investors or ETFs, even small sell orders can lead to significant price drops,” Arab Chain explained. This behavior mirrors “thin market” conditions, where limited order book depth magnifies volatility and makes prices more susceptible to sudden downward moves.

The analysis suggests that market fragility could persist unless fresh demand enters the market. Historically, periods of constrained liquidity combined with a lack of large-scale buyers have led to prolonged corrections in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

ETF Demand Volatility and Weak Accumulation

Another factor influencing the recent decline has been the erratic demand for Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Arab Chain observed sharp fluctuations in ETF inflows, with rapid surges followed by strong outflows, leaving no consistent institutional support to stabilize prices.

This inconsistent participation from ETFs, which have become a major driver of Bitcoin demand since their approval, contributed to weaker price resilience during sell-offs.

Additionally, on-chain data showed that “smart portfolios,” or high-value addresses typically associated with strategic accumulation, exhibited only modest buying activity during the recent downturn.

Although accumulation signals long-term confidence, its slow and limited pace failed to counterbalance selling pressure in real time. This lack of immediate demand further weakened market support.

Additionally, while investors closely monitor liquidity conditions, ETF flows, and long-term holder activity for signs of a potential rebound. Analysts suggest that sustained institutional buying or an uptick in accumulation from large addresses could help restore stability.

Until then, Bitcoin may remain in a vulnerable position, with its price movement largely dependent on shifts in demand and available liquidity.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView