Mean-reversion day for risk-assets – Market wrap for the North American session - August 4

[Ben Graham]

Log in to today's North American session recap for August 4, 2025.

After a brutal Friday session for risk-assets, some heavy dip-buying has been ongoing in today's session bringing the move upwards to start the week.

Days like today tend to be tricky in terms of price action due to some caution as bad numbers tend to see some follow through as profit-taking occurs, but it seems that Thursday's selloff had been pre-emptive and allowed value-seekers to find what they wanted.

The Market is finding some ease in the strong pricing for a September cut amid political pressure form the Trump Administration and some FED Members starting to show concerns about the Economy.

For now the mandate is still Employment and Inflation but it will be extremely interesting to see how they communicate after the bad NFP report.

Probabilities of Policy Rate for the September Meeting, August 4, 2025 – Source: CME FedWatch

The pricing for a 25 bps cut in September is around 92.5% towards the end (it was closer to 40% after last Wednesday's Powell conference post-FOMC)

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It will be interesting to see how Markets perform this week as there isn't too much in terms of key data this week (except for some US Services PMIs and Employment data for NZ and Canada).

Markets will have to hold their risk-on behaviors to avoid Sellers taking control of the action again as some tops have been formed in the past week.

Daily Cross-Asset performance

Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The daily asset-performance picture as a bit unusual, with Commodities showing a very different story compared to risk-assets.

Gold is pursuing its run higher while Oil seems to be trading in recession/lower economic activity levels – Stocks on the other hand have just flew upwards as if nothing happened on Friday.

Trading might be tricky this week so it'll be essential to keep an eye on all asset classes to have a clearer view of what's going on.

A picture of today's performance for major currencies

Currency Performance, August 4 – Source: OANDA Labs

The Forex picture is very mixed with the CHF being the worst performer out of all majors while the JPY is on top – a strange picture that could find some explanations in CHF/JPY making daily all-time highs since April; the Pair fell harshly in today's session.

For the rest, the USD is mixed and finishes the session close to unchanged.

It would be a lie to say that things are not confusing in today's session.

Earnings Season: Who is releasing their numbers tomorrow

Earnings Calendar for August 5th – Source: Nasdaq.com

Some of the key earnings to monitor for tomorrow's session will be Pfizer in the pre-open and AMD in the after-close.

A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

The session is not finished yet for AUD Traders that will have to look at both Australian PMIs and China's Caixin Services PMIs.
JPY traders will also need to stay awake for the Bank of Japan minutes at 19:50.

Tomorrow's session will be interesting with the day starting with the Eurozone PPI data (consensus 0.8% m/m), US Services PMI releasing at 10:00 expected at 51.5.

The evening session will conclude with the New Zealand's Employment change expected at -0.1% m/m.


Safe Trades and nice trading week to you all!

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