Market Expert Debunks Possible Bitcoin Top In November Using 9-12 Months Retail Cycle

[Ben Graham]

The debate around Bitcoin’s top for this cycle has been a major topic as market participants eye potential peaks later this year. Although some analysts have forecasted a blow-off top in October or November, Quinten Francois, a respected crypto market commentator, strongly disagrees. Drawing from historical data and market psychology, Francois believes that the current bull market is far from over and that expectations for a Q4 2025 top are “just not going to happen.”

November Is Too Soon For A Bitcoin Peak

Taking to the social media platform X, Bitcoin commentator Quinten argued that any expectations for a full market peak by November completely overlook how previous cycles have unfolded. He pointed out that in both 2017 and 2021, the altseason, the period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, began in Q1 of those respective bull market years.

From that point, the retail-driven psychological cycle took roughly 9 to 12 months to fully play out. This time around, the analyst suggests that altseason hasn’t even started in earnest. The ETH/BTC ratio, often used as the criteria for altseason momentum, is only just beginning to reverse.

Given this timing, Quinten noted that a cycle top occurring within the next two or three months is nearly impossible. The moment altseason begins marks the entry of broad retail participation, and from that point onward, it typically takes 9 to 12 months for euphoria and market excess to reach a crescendo. 

If history is any guide, the current psychological cycle is still in its early stages because the retail cycle hasn’t properly kicked in yet. This would push a market peak into the second or third quarter of 2026 at the earliest.

Altcoin Cycle Will Determine If Peak Is Possible

The only condition that could allow for a major top this year, Quinten admitted, would be an absence of an altcoin cycle altogether. That scenario, or a catastrophic black swan event, could short-circuit the retail cycle and lead to an earlier-than-usual top. However, the possibility of this happening is very low, and this psychological cycle simply cannot play out much quicker than 9-12 months.

As such, Bitcoin’s price action is most likely to play out like it has always done. “If things unfold as they historically have (we can only count on this), then it’s just not going to happen,” he said.

Although the analyst did not give a price target for the expected Bitcoin top for this cycle, other technical analysts have pointed to targets between $140,000 and $200,000. In another post on the social media platform, Quinten noted that Bitcoin is currently playing out its biggest bullish setup in history. This outlook is based on a current retest of an ascending trendline of all-time highs, which Bitcoin broke above in July.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $114,460, having declined by about 3.7% in the past seven days.