Oil retreats back just above May’s trading range

Ben Graham · August 11, 2025

The energy commodity hasn't had its best performance this year.

Oil got caught in the mix of many geopolitical headwinds between large supply from OPEC+ for internal reorganization (they want to force out some producing countries of the organization), Russia flooding the Market to pay for its war, downward revised global outlooks and tensions in the Middle East.

Such volatile events are tough to predict and their effects are even tougher to predict – But one thing stands: Oil always found sellers during the first 8 months of this year.

Now, Trump and Putin are supposed to meet in person ahead of a deadline that would impose gigantic tariffs on Russian exports as a menace for them to end the war.

It would be very interesting to see how markets react to a cease-fire in Ukraine, particularly as we all pray for peace.

In the meantime, let's have a look at Black Gold to spot why the commodity struggles so much, at least on the technical side.

Read More: Bitcoin rejects the test of its all-time highs, is a double top in the making?

US Oil technical analysis

US Oil Daily Chart

Oil retreats back just above May’s trading range - ExpertFX School — US Oil Daily Chart, August 11 2025 – Source: TradingView

US Oil went through a tough past week after showing a wick at the middle of its past $65 to $70 range.

Today's trading shows a mildly bullish candle but a failure to close above the past session $65 highs would keep it in bearish territory – The commodity is now trading below both its 50 and 200 Day Moving averages which would confirm the bearish outlook.

Momentum which was tilting downwards is starting to flatten, a sign of bear exhaustion which comes around the May range highs around $64.

It seems that Markets are once again waiting to see the US inflation data to know if stimulatory policies could get priced in further to provide a fresh bid to the commodity.

US Oil 4H Chart

Looking closer the the 4H Candle, WTI is evolving downwards after showing a break retest of its mid-May upward trendline which previously acted as a demand zone for buyers.

Since, sellers have formed an intermediate bearish trend that is still holding. Due to its steep regression, any break would lead to consolidation before any reversal gets higher probability.

Watch again for the communications of the Trump-Putin meeting which may add to the volatility as depending on the outcomes, a break in the war may slow down the Russian supply.

Levels to watch for US Oil:

Resistance Levels

Key Support Zone turned pivot $65
Imminent Pivot Zone $67.30 to $68 – Confluence with 50 and 200 Day MAs
69.5–$70.5 Resistance Zone, range extremes

Support Levels

$63.20 to $64 May Range highs support
60.5 Low of May Range
$55 to $57 2025 lows Main support

US Oil 1H Chart

Zooming even closer to the 1H timeframe, WTI buyers are stepping in at the conjunction of the downwards intermediate trendline and the 50-H MA after forming an hourly double bottom around $63.30.

Breaking that trendline would look to then test the $65 to $66 Support zone turned Pivot, important for the next technical phase.

A rejection of that $65 would confirm further bearish outlooks while repassing above would put back the commodity in its $65 to $70 range.

Safe Trades!

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