Dow Jones finds the most relief after in-line US CPI

Ben Graham · August 12, 2025

This morning saw some particular reactions to the as-expected CPI report.

Initial reactions were going towards most assets benefitting from rate cuts rallying, like US Equities, bonds and gold heading higher.

Since, longer-term bonds are getting sold off due to the pricing of an immediate September rate cut which would put up long-term inflation expectations. 10 (4.315%) to 30 Year yields (4.90%) are at their highs of the session.

Nasdaq and S&P are getting hurt from this, particularly following the Nvidia and AMD announcement to share 15% of their profits from China to the US Government.

The Dow Jones on the other hand seems to like the inflation report and is seeing the most buying flows in the morning session – let's have a look at the Technicals for the Index.

Equity Heatmap

Dow Jones finds the most relief after in-line US CPI - ExpertFX School — Current session Equity Heatmap, August 12, 2025 – Source: Finviz

The picture is fairly mixed, gives profit-taking impressions

Current Picture for Indices and US Bonds

See how everything rallied at the number release and the consequent rewiring of flows with the US 30Y Bonds getting sold off while the Dow Jones starts to overperform other indices.

Dow Jones Multi-timeframe analysis

Dow Jones Daily Chart

Buyers are trying to push higher from the multi day 44,000 to 44,500 consolidation zone.

Daily momentum is tilting higher from neutral levels, however it will take a consequential rally to put the RSI back towards strictly bullish territory.

The 50-Day MA tilting higher is currently acting as support after catching up slowly to the price action from the NFP lows.

Dow Jones 4H Chart

Dow buyers are trying to push the index towards the 44,500 mini resistance zone after bouncing on the 50-period MA.

Momentum is strong for the Index as flows are rewiring towards the US 30 from Tech indices.

Failure to break the 44,500 would indicate further consolidation, therefore keep an eye on that level.

Breaking higher would point to a retest of the All-time highs for the Dow.

Levels to watch for the Dow Jones:

Resistance Levels

Mini resistance 44,500 +/- 15 points
44,519 Thursday highs to break
All-time high resistance zone around 45,000
Current ATH 45,150

Support Levels

Lows of consolidation zone 43,820
Pivot turned Support 43,500 to 43,750
NFP Lows Mini-Support 43,250
43,000 Main Support Zone

Dow Jones 1H Chart

Looking closer offers a clearer picture of the 5-day range.

Buyers will have to be careful of imminent overbought levels, a sign of their strength would be ongoing consolidation at the highs or a refusal to retest lower levels.

Watch the effect of rising yields on indices as some rewiring of flows from Nasdaq to the Dow is going on.

Safe Trades!

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