XRP Fractal Hints at 45% Crash Risk: Could the Post-SEC Rally Already Be Over?

XRP’s legal victory over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has removed a major regulatory hurdle, sparking optimism for institutional adoption and even a potential spot XRP ETF.

Daily trading volumes soared 208% to $12.4 billion after the settlement, with analysts estimating a 95% chance of ETF approval by October 2025.

However, price action suggests the euphoria may be cooling. In the 24 hours ending August 12, XRP slipped 4% from $3.19 to $3.13, despite hitting an intraday peak of $3.32.

Heavy selling during the 19:00 hour, totaling 73.87 million in volume, indicates large holders are locking in profits. While support has held at $3.12, resistance remains firm at $3.27–$3.32.

Bearish Fractal Signals Potential 45% Drop

Technical analysts are eyeing a concerning development on XRP’s two-week chart: a bearish divergence where price makes higher highs but the relative strength index (RSI) prints lower highs. This setup mirrors conditions from the 2017–2018 market peak, which preceded a brutal multi-month selloff.

If the pattern repeats, XRP could slide toward its 50-period exponential moving average near $1.64, roughly 45% below current prices, before finding meaningful support. Interim demand may emerge around $1.90–$2.00, but the bearish fractal suggests momentum is fading.

Such a correction wouldn’t necessarily end the broader bull market but could shake out overleveraged traders, reset sentiment, and set the stage for a more sustainable uptrend later.

Bulls see a different path. XRP is testing the $3.55 resistance level, which capped the 2018 rally, and has broken out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle.

Clearing $3.55 with strong volume could open the door to $4.41 and potentially $5.68, especially if U.S. regulators approve an XRP ETF and whales shift from distribution to accumulation.

Ripple’s focus on long-term infrastructure, CBDC partnerships, and real-world asset tokenization could underpin fundamental demand even if short-term price action turns choppy.

Still, macroeconomic uncertainty, whale selling patterns, and technical resistance remain hurdles that traders must watch closely. For now, XRP sits at a crossroads, either confirming the ominous fractal for a steep drop or breaking through resistance to extend the post-SEC rally.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview