Hang Seng Index Technical: End of minor corrective decline, start of new bullish impulsive up move

[Ben Graham]

Since the recent one-week slide of -5.8% seen on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) from 24 July 2025 high to 1 August 2025 low, its price actions have been choppy as markets grappled with US tariffs news flow and the possibility of an imminent US Federal Reserve dovish pivot in September.

Amid this chaotic news flow environment, several technical elements are advocating the potential start of a new short-term bullish trend for the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index.

Read more on our medium-term outlook published earlier on 5 August 2025; Hang Seng Index Forecast: New bullish leg supported by southbound flows and improvement in China services activities

Fig. 1: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 13 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: Percentage of Hang Seng Index component stocks above 200-day MA as of 12 Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Bullish bias above 24,915 short-term pivotal support, with the next intermediate resistances coming in at 25,520, 25,750, and 25,890 (see Fig. 1).

Key elements

• The price action of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index staged a bullish breakout above its 20-day moving average on Tuesday, 12 August, which suggests the potential start of a new short-term bullish impulsive uptrend phase.
• The medium-term and major uptrend phases remain intact for the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index as price actions continued to oscillate within a major ascending channel from the January 2024 low and a medium-term ascending channel from the 2 June 2025 low.
• The hourly MACD trend indicator of the Hong Kong 33 CFD has continued to trend steadily upwards above its centerline since Tuesday, 12 August, which supports the emergence of a new short-term bullish impulsive uptrend phase.
• Market breadth of the Hang Seng Index has also improved as the percentage of its component stocks trading above their respective key 200-day moving averages has increased from 1 August print of 82% to 88% as of Tuesday, 12 August (see Fig. 2).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

Failure to hold at the 24,915 key short-term support negates the bullish tone to reinstate another round of minor choppy corrective decline sequence to retest the next intermediate supports at 24,790/24,725 and 24,600.

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