Has Bitcoin’s Bull Run Really Ended? Here’s What MVRV Data Suggests

[Ben Graham]

Bitcoin continues to retrace from its record highs, with the asset trading below $115,000 at the time of writing. Current price levels place Bitcoin near $113,098, a decline of around 6.5% over the past week and close to 9% below its all-time peak.

Despite the downturn, analysts monitoring on-chain data suggest the broader market cycle may still have room to extend upward. One such view comes from CryptoQuant’s QuickTake contributor, PelinayPA, who analyzed Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio.

The analyst noted that while recent corrections may weigh on short-term sentiment, historical patterns in MVRV indicate that Bitcoin has not yet reached conditions typically associated with market cycle tops.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Points to Neutral but Upward Potential

The MVRV ratio is a widely tracked on-chain indicator that compares Bitcoin’s total market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which reflects the aggregated value of coins at the price they last moved on-chain.

Historically, when the ratio climbs into the 3.5 to 4 range, it signals a potential overheating of the market. At these levels, most holders are in profit, selling activity rises, and price tops are often reached. Conversely, MVRV levels below 1 have historically marked accumulation phases and strong long-term entry points.

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio stands around 2.1. According to PelinayPA, this reading positions the market within a “neutral to bullish” zone, suggesting that while Bitcoin is no longer cheap, the conditions for an extended rally remain intact.

The analyst noted that in previous cycles, the MVRV ratio advanced significantly higher before a peak, implying that Bitcoin’s price would need to move into the $140,000–$180,000 range for the indicator to reach historical top levels.

However, the data also suggests that corrections along the way are plausible. “Since MVRV is already above 2, the market is not cheap anymore — short to mid-term corrections may occur along the way,” PelinayPA explained. The balance between potential upside and intermittent drawdowns reflects a phase of consolidation within a broader bull market structure.

Exchange Flows Signal Mixed Market Behavior

In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant contributor BorisD examined exchange netflow data, focusing on Binance, the world’s largest crypto trading platform. The report highlighted notable trends across several altcoins, showing how capital movements may inform future market conditions.

According to the data, tokens such as ENJ (Enjin) and FET (Fetch.ai) recorded significant outflows from Binance. This pattern typically indicates that investors are moving assets to private wallets, which can be interpreted as a sign of longer-term holding behavior.

In contrast, assets like ANKR and MATIC have seen strong inflows onto exchanges, raising the possibility of either upcoming selling pressure or speculative positioning ahead of market shifts.

BorisD suggested that monitoring which assets are attracting inflows versus outflows could help investors identify potential opportunities in the altcoin market. “Identifying which of these altcoins are currently near potential bottoms and positioning for their next rally seems to be the most rational strategy,” the analyst wrote.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView