Nvidia Technical: Bullish impulsive up move sequence intact ahead of earnings

[Ben Graham]

Artificial intelligence (AI) juggernaut Nvidia will report its second-quarter earnings after the close of the US session on Wednesday, 27 August.

Its ex-post share price actions, earnings results, and guidance are likely to trigger a significant feedback loop back into the broader US stock market and globally as well.

The medium- to long-term bullish momentum in global stock markets has been sustained largely by optimism surrounding the transformative potential of emerging AI technologies. Investors anticipate that these innovations could deliver significant productivity gains across industries, even though such benefits have yet to be fully realized or empirically proven.

This forward-looking sentiment has, to a large extent, counterbalanced the drag from protectionist measures, particularly the tariff policies enacted by the current US administration, which pose risks to global trade flows and economic growth.

Nvidia’s ex-post earnings share performance is pivotal for the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500

Fig. 1: US mega-cap stocks market capitalisation as of 26 Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

Nvidia’s market capitalization stands at US$4.44 trillion as of Tuesday, 26 August, which makes it the largest among the US mega-cap stocks as well as the most valuable publicly listed company in the world. Its market-cap weight on the Nasdaq 100 is 14%, and a weight of 7% on the S&P 500 (see Fig. 1).

According to a news report from Reuters dated Tuesday, 26 August, the US option markets are pricing in about a US$260 billion price swing in Invidia’s market value following the release of its second quarter earnings results today.

Nvidia’s options implied a movement of around 6% swing in either direction, which is now below the long-term earnings implied movement of 7.7%, averaged over the last 12 quarters.

Hence, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 may swing in either direction by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, upon the release of Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings results.

Let’s now take a deep dive into the potential share price performance of Nvidia from a technical analysis perspective from a medium-term horizon (1 to 3 months).

Fig 2: Nvidia medium-term trend as of 27 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 months)

Bullish bias with key medium-term pivotal support at 167.90. A clearance above 189.20 may see the next medium-term resistance come in at 198.10/206.35 (upper boundary of medium-term ascending channel and Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• Since trading sideways in the past four weeks, and a retest on its fresh all-time intraday high of 184.48 on 12 August, the price actions of Nvidia have formed a bullish daily “Hammer” candlestick on 20 August.
• After the formation of the bullish daily “Hammer” candlestick, the price actions of Nvidia have staged a positive follow-through and rebounded right above its rising 50-day moving average and the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 7 April 2025 low of 86.62.
• The daily Chaikin Money Flow indicator has continued to increase steadily since 31 July 2025, which suggests a bullish momentum condition accompanied by a rise in volume.
• The relative strength ratio chart of Nvidia against the Nasdaq 100 has been trending upwards since 12 May 2025, which indicates a potential outperformance of Nvidia over the Nasdaq 100 in the medium term.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 months)

A breakdown below 167.90 damages the medium-term uptrend phase of Nvidia to kickstart a corrective decline sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 148.77 and 139.25 (also the 200-day moving average).

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