Euro gains ground, German CPI next

[Ben Graham]

The euro has posted gains on Thursday. In the North America session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1670, up 0.27% on the day.

US GDP revised upwards

US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter.

After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell.

The US labor market has been softening and the July nonfarm payrolls fell to just 73 thousand. Still, unemployment claims have been steady and today's release showed that claims dropped to 229 thousand, down from a revised 234 thousand last week and just below the market estimate of 230 thousand.

German CPI expected to flatline

Germany releases CPI report on Friday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for August. This would mark the second flat reading in three months, an indication that inflation is under control. Annually, CPI is expected to nudge up to 2.1% from 2.0%.

Eurozone inflation will be released next week. Headline CPI is currently at 2.0% and core CPI is at 2.3%, with little change expected in the August release.

The European Central Bank took a pause in July after seven straight rate cuts. The ECB meets on September 11 and with inflation largely contained and around the ECB's 2% target, the Bank is not feeling pressure to continue lowering rates.

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD has pushed above resistance above 1.1646 and is testing resistance at 1.1667. Above, there is resistance at 1.1690
• There is support at 1.1623 and 1.1602

EURUSD 4-Hour Chart, August 28, 2025

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