Bitcoin Rally Over? CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index Turns Bearish

[Ben Graham]

CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index has dropped to a value of 20, hinting that a potential bearish transition could have occurred for the asset.

Bitcoin Bull Score Index Is Now In “Extra Bearish” Territory

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has shared how the analytics firm’s “Bull Score Index” has changed for Bitcoin after its recent price drawdown. The Bull Score Index is an indicator that tells us about the market phase the cryptocurrency is currently going through. It determines this by referring to a bunch of key on-chain metrics.

Below is a chart that shows the trend in the indicator over the past year.

As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin entered into the “bullish cooldown” phase at the start of August. This signal interestingly persisted even when its price set a new all-time high (ATH) later in the month, a potential sign that the breakout was always gonna be short-lived.

In the market downturn that has followed this peak, the Bull Score Index first dipped into the “getting bearish” zone, and now, it has plunged right into “extra bearish” levels. “This is something to take serious,” notes Maartunn.

Here is another chart, this one breaking down the individual signals contributing to the Bull Score Index’s value:

As displayed in the graph, almost all of the indicators are giving a bearish signal at the moment. Perhaps the most popular metric on the list is the “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score,” which relates to investor profitability. It would appear the current market conditions are bad enough to force it to turn red.

Last time the MVRV Z-Score and Bull Score Index turned bearish was back in February of this year. What followed the signal was an extended phase of negative price action for Bitcoin. Given that the Bull Score Index is once again giving an extra bearish indication for the cryptocurrency, it remains to be seen whether its price will now see another transition.

Replying to Maartunn’s post, analyst Ali Martinez has agreed with the caution and shared another signal that could point to a similar outcome for Bitcoin.

The indicator cited by Martinez is the net position change of the 90-day exponential moving average (EMA) Bitcoin Supply In Profit. From the chart, it’s apparent that the metric has turned negative recently, which is something that also happened before the bearish market phase earlier in the year.

BTC Price

While on-chain metrics may be pointing at a bearish conclusion for Bitcoin, its price has made a recovery to $113,000 for now.