Bitcoin Could Slip In September Before Q4 Rally, Cycle Data Shows

[Ben Graham]

Bitcoin has bounced back above $112,000 after slipping to $107,000 last week, its lowest mark since July. The rebound has stirred hope among traders, but analysts remain split on whether the current upswing can hold through September.

September’s Track Record Under Scrutiny

Historical data shows September hasn’t been kind to Bitcoin during post-halving years. In 2017, the coin ended the month with a close to 8% loss, while in 2021 the decline was 7%.

Even further back, in 2013, Bitcoin dropped 1.60% in the same month. That pattern has led some experts to argue that a retest of key technical levels this year is nothing unusual.

Benjamin Cowen, head of ITC Crypto, has repeatedly pointed to the 20-week simple moving average as a marker.

According to him, September tends to bring price dips toward that level before a fourth-quarter recovery takes hold. Cowen believes the recent pullback fits the broader rhythm seen in earlier cycles.

Historically, #Bitcoin finds a low in September of the post-halving year, and then bounces off of it into the market cycle top that occurs in Q4. pic.twitter.com/CVbcPOUojM

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) September 3, 2025

Mixed Views On Cycle Consistency

Not everyone is convinced. Some analysts have raised questions about whether the cycle is breaking from tradition. They highlighted that Bitcoin normally records gains in August before falling back in September. This time, however, the opposite occurred.

Bitcoin closed August with a 6.25% loss. That stands in stark contrast to August 2017, when the coin surged 64%, and August 2021, when it gained 15%.

Those two robust months were each followed by abrupt September declines. Analysts believe that current data indicate a different configuration could be at work, with macroeconomic parameters such as rate cuts being more pronounced over price action.

Calls That The Bottom Is Already In

Despite the cautious tone from some analysts, there are voices pointing to a brighter near-term outlook, saying the low for September may already be behind Bitcoin.

The asset opened the month at $108,200, touched a high of $110,100, and fell to $107,000 before rebounding. Based on that sequence, analysts suggest the market may avoid setting new lows this month.

Cowen, however, continues to stress that corrections after setting fresh highs are part of the cycle. He points to August’s new record peak as evidence that the market is following the same blueprint as previous years.

In his view, the retreat to the 20-week SMA is less a warning sign than a setup for a strong year-end rally.

While the debate over September’s outcome continues, most analysts agree on one point: short-term turbulence is unlikely to alter the long-term picture.

Recent data have made clear that despite temporary dips, Bitcoin is expected to trade far higher in the years ahead.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView