US Non-Farm Payrolls finally release and they miss! 22K vs 75K consensus, Canadian Jobs data regress (-65K vs +10K)

[Ben Graham]

The monthly release for US August jobs is at 22K vs 75K Expectations

The prior month came at 74K vs 110K expectations, but the biggest surprise was to the downside revisions which turned a 291K increase in two months to an-only 33K increase.

With the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, there really is a decent slowdown happening in the US.

Canadian jobs also regressed quite largely at -65K vs 10K expectations, sending the Loonie down vs other majors.

The US Dollar is falling off, about to break support, equities are rallying but mixed : a more than 25 bps is starting to price but still has low probabilities of happening.

The data still shows an increase, albeit a very small one.

Check out the reactions to the US Dollar, a few FX Charts and Equities Futures.

Read More:

• Markets Today: UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates, Trump Signs Japan Deal, FTSE 100 Bounces Off 100-Day MA. NFP Next
• Silver nears its all-time highs, where to look next? XAG higher timeframe outlook

Market reactions

Market overview, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView

It will be essential to log in after the Market open to see reactions when most volumes enter the market.

For now, it's USD and CAD down, risk-assets up but mixed, US Treasuries and Gold flying higher.

Current FX Picture after NFP

FX currency performance, September 5, 2025 – Source: Finviz

Look at the current pricing for FOMC Cuts for the rest of the year:

Cut Pricing for the rest of the year – Source: FEDWatch Tool

Markets just added about 17 bps of extra cut pricing to the rest of the year, which takes the 2.1 cuts to just about 3 cuts.

Let's see how this progresses and what influence it will have on Markets.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.