UK retail sales beat estimate, US nonfarm payrolls sink, pound jumps

[Ben Graham]

The British pound has pushed higher on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3519, up 0.66% on the day. About half the pound's gains have come following today's weak US nonfarm payrolls report.

UK retail sales accelerate in July

It was a good-news-bad news retail sales report out of the UK today. July retail sales rose a respectable 0.6% m/m, up from a downwardly revised 0.3% in June and higher than the market estimate of 0.2%. The improvement was driven by warm weather and the women's European soccer championship.

The bad news was the sharp downward corrections to the the previous months' data. Retail sales for June was revised lower to 0.3% from 0.9%.

Annualized retail sales posted a with a gain of 1.1%, missing the market estimate of 1.3%. This was above the June reading of 0.9%, which was revised from 1.7%.

US NFP misses big

All eyes were on today's US nonfarm payrolls, which disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021.

Employers remain cautious about hiring in an uncertain economic environment and the Trump tariffs aren't helping to restore confidence.

This key employment release has taken on double significance, coming shortly before the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 17. There could be calls for the Fed to consider a jumbo half-point cut as the labor market is cooling quickly, although the most likely scenario is a modest quarter-point cut.

GBP/USD Technical

• GBP/USD has pushed above several resistance lines and is testing 1.3499. Next, there is resistance at 1.3552
• 1.3415 and 1.3395 are providing support

GBPUSD 1-Day Chart, September 5, 2025

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