Tom Lee Predicts $200K Bitcoin — Peter Schiff Isn’t Buying It

[Ben Graham]

Peter Schiff has renewed his critique of Bitcoin as Tom Lee of Fundstrat pushes a headline-grabbing $200,000 price target for the cryptocurrency.

According to reports, Lee says the market’s recent weakness is tied to the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates, while Schiff points to gold’s recent rally as a warning sign for Bitcoin.

Schiff Points To Gold’s Rally

In an X post, the gold bug Schiff highlighted that the yellow metal rose 10% over the last two months and reached a new high of $3,620.

“Markets are forward-looking. That’s why gold is up 10% in advance of coming rate cuts,” he said, arguing that gold’s move shows traders expect easier policy ahead.

Bitcoin, he added, has not followed gold’s lead, and that gap worries him.

Permabull @fundstrat forecast Bitcoin will hit $200K by year-end, as Bitcoin is sensitive to Fed rate cuts. He said the Fed’s two-month pause is why Bitcoin hasn’t rallied over that time period. But gold rallied 10% during those two months, hitting a record $3,620 as he spoke.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) September 8, 2025

Lee’s $200,000 Call And His Explanation

Tom Lee remains optimistic. He has argued that the influx of institutional investors gives Bitcoin new “counter-cyclical characteristics,” and that bigger players could push prices much higher over time.

Based on reports, Lee blames the recent underperformance on the Fed and keeps the $200,000 figure in public view. His stance continues to make him one of Wall Street’s best-known permabulls – persons who maintain a perpetually optimistic outlook.

Market Odds And Traders’ View

Polymarket users appear unconvinced by Lee’s timetable. At press time, markets show an 8% chance of Bitcoin reaching $200k this year.

The same markets place roughly an 8% chance on Bitcoin dropping below $70,000 by the end of 2025. Those odds suggest bettors are split and that headline targets are being treated with skepticism.

A Broader Performance Check

Schiff has also pointed to longer-term measurements. He noted that Bitcoin is down 16% against gold over the past four years, even though the cryptocurrency has posted strong gains versus the US dollar in that span.

He warned that when “more air” comes out of the Bitcoin bubble, the four-year returns may look weak. The idea that the old four-year cycle tied to halvings may be fading was raised by other analysts in recent commentary, and that debate is ongoing.

What Comes Next For Bitcoin

Schiff went further by saying Bitcoin is more likely to sink below $100k than to reach $200k, putting a cautious spin on the outlook.

This view makes clear where Schiff stands: he treats gold’s rally as a forward signal about future policy and believes Bitcoin’s lag is not a short-term quirk but a structural concern.

Lee’s counter is that institutional flows could change how Bitcoin moves over time.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView