Markets look for rate clues from RBNZ's Hawkesby, US PPI contracts, Kiwi jumps

[Ben Graham]

The New Zealand dollar has renewed its upward move after a pause on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5957, up 0.52% on the day. Earlier, NZD/USD rose as high as 0.5964, a two-month high.

Will Hawkesbury hint at another rate cut?

The markets will be keeping a close eye on Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby, who will discuss the RBNZ's August Monetary Statement at an event in Auckland on Thursday.

At the August meeting, the Reserve Bank cut rates by a quarter-point to 3.0%, its lowest level since August 2022. The central bank hinted at further rate cuts due to expectations of lower growth both domestically and globally. The monetary rate statement said that if inflation pressures continued to ease, "there is scope" to continue lowering the cash rate.

The Bank's dovish tone surprised the markets and sent the New Zealand dollar tumbling 1.2% on the day of the meeting. As well, two of the six committee members voted for a 50 basis-point cut, reinforcing market expectations that the Reserve Bank will cut at least one more time this year. Investors will be looking for clues from Hawkesby on Thursday.

US PPI declines by 0.1%

US wholesale prices for August declined for the first time in four months. Both headline and core PPI fell 0.1%, down from 0.7% and shy of the market estimate of 0.3%. Annualized, headline PPI eased to 2.6% from 3.1%, below the market estimate of 3.3%. Core PPI slipped to 2.8% from 3.4%, below the market estimate of 3.5%.

Will we see a similar miss from consumer inflation on Thursday? The markets expect headline CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.7% and core CPI to remain steady at 3.1%. If consumer inflation surprises to the downside, the US dollar could lose ground as rate cut expectations would likely increase.

NZD/USD Technical

• NZDUSD has pushed above resistance at 0.5936 and is testing 0.5950. Above, there is resistance at 0.5973
• 0.5913 and 0.5899 are providing support

NZDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 10, 2025

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