Ethereum Faces September Profit-Taking Risks Despite $638M ETF Boost

[Ben Graham]

Ethereum (ETH) continues to capture institutional attention as strong inflows into spot ETFs highlight the growing demand.

According to SoSoValue, Ethereum funds recorded $638 million in net inflows between September 8–12, 2025, with Fidelity’s FETH leading at $381 million. This marked the fourth consecutive week of gains and pushed cumulative Ethereum ETF inflows above $13.3 billion.

While the inflows strengthen Ethereum’s long-term investment case, historical trends and on-chain signals suggest September profit-taking risks may resurface. Despite trading near $4,520 on September 15, ETH faces mixed market signals that could dictate its next major move.

ETF Inflows Signal Institutional Confidence

Ethereum ETFs are becoming a major part of the crypto market, with total assets under management surpassing $30 billion. Fidelity and BlackRock accounted for most of the latest inflows, while Grayscale and Bitwise also recorded steady gains.

Institutional accumulation continues to reshape Ethereum’s market dynamics. Exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since 2016, reflecting reduced selling pressure as more ETH flows into long-term holdings.

Additionally, over 36 million ETH, about 30% of supply, is staked, further tightening liquidity.

September’s Ghost: Profit-Taking Pressures

Despite the bullish inflows, history paints a cautious picture. September has typically been a weak month for ETH, with a median return of -12.7% since its launch. Current on-chain data supports this caution: the percentage of ETH supply in profit recently peaked near 99%, signaling overheated conditions.

Past profit peaks have often led to 8–9% pullbacks. Furthermore, derivatives data shows Ethereum trading within a rising wedge pattern, a structure that often precedes corrections. Key support lies at $4,485 and $4,382, while resistance levels target $4,760 and $4,945.

Can Ethereum Break Toward $5K?

Ethereum’s fundamentals currently remain strong. ETF inflows, whale accumulation, and shrinking exchange supply provide structural support. If ETH holds above $4,700, cascading liquidations could propel a move toward the $4,900–$5,000 range.

However, traders must remain cautious. With September’s track record of corrections and elevated profit-taking signals, Ethereum could face short-term volatility even as its long-term case strengthens.

Ethereum’s next test will be whether it can sustain momentum beyond September, breaking the cycle of seasonal weakness while capitalizing on growing institutional demand.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview