USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

From a technical perspective, yesterday's break of the round level of 147.00 and consolidation below it became a fresh trigger for the bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has once again started moving lower, indicating that the path of least resistance for spot prices is downward. However, a minor rebound from support at 146.20, where the 100-day SMA is currently aligned, calls for caution. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for sustained selling below this area, as well as below the round level of 146.00, before planning further losses. In that case, the pair would accelerate its decline toward intermediate support at 145.30, opening the way to the psychological level of 145.00.

On the other hand, a recovery above the nearest resistance zone of 146.70 would attract new sellers and remain capped at the round level of 147.00. However, subsequent buying beyond the 147.15–147.20 level, where the 100-day EMA passes, could lift USD/JPY toward the 147.50–147.60 level, where the 50-day SMA lies, on the way to the round level of 148.00. A firm move above this level would trigger short covering toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently sits near 148.70. The next levels would be the round 149.00 and the monthly high around 149.15–149.20. If decisively broken, short-term sentiment would shift in favor of the bulls.

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