USD/CHF Outlook: Swiss Franc renews 15-year highs on shifting SNB doctrine

• Riding on the coattails of dollar weakness and safe-haven demand for much of 2025, USD/CHF currently trades at monthly lows of 0.78698, down -1.10% in yesterday’s session alone
• Despite renewed deflationary pressures, as seen in Monday's PPI report, safe-haven flows concerning U.S. policy, especially regarding trade, continue to benefit CHF pricing
• While the SNB has been expected to return to its usual playbook of currency interventions to weaken the franc, recent market realisations suggest that new leadership is less interested in ‘interventionist’ policy

Currently on pace for its best yearly performance in over two decades, 2025 has been an interesting year for dollar-franc traders.

While recent domestic GDP numbers and continuing deflationary pressures within the Swiss economy would typically bode poorly for the Swiss franc, the significant appreciation in value seen across much of this year can be summed up in three words: safe-haven flows.

This goes double considering the recent change of tack from the Bank of Japan, with the unwinding of the now infamous carry trade diverting much of the demand for safe-haven currencies towards the franc over the yen.

Despite an unremarkable economic performance, at least one outcome is a rapid appreciation in franc value, currently at #1 in year-to-date performance, with the euro coming in a close second place.

Read more on the Swiss franc’s performance in 2025: Swiss franc leads majors as US session begins and reclaims 2025 crown

With the Swiss franc trading at multi-year highs since June, many expected the Swiss National Bank to intervene, in a return to its typical playbook.

Having relied heavily on currency intervention to control CHF pricing in years past, it would seem that new leadership, under Chair Martin Schlegel, is less interested in ‘interventionist policy’ than his predecessors.

While the market has slowly but surely come to this realisation, having seen many opportunities this year where intervention would have likely happened in years past, it seems the SNB is taking a more hands-off approach.

This has been further vindicated by the SNB's clear difference in buying habits, which have purchased fewer francs in the last twelve months than in previous years by an order of magnitude.

While traders have been cautious about taking further CHF shorts, fearing a potential for intervention, it would seem that, once all pieced together, the SNB is more comfortable with a stronger franc than once thought.

On this basis, considering the SNB is more likely to leave the CHF at the mercy of market forces in the short term, we can consider USD/CHF downside renewed, as seen in yesterday’s session.

That said, traders would do well to remember that an apparent change to ‘non-interventionalist’ policy only remains true until it doesn't; so best to approach with at least some caution.

• Painting fresh 15-year lows in yesterday’s session, bearish momentum has been renewed owing to SNB developments. Breaking previous lows at 0.78713, the level has failed to offer any support to a falling USD/CHF price
• Yesterday’s price action also broke the previously held downwards channel, with 0.78500 being an obvious next key level target should downside continue
• In line with Fibonacci theory, and assuming price will stage a short-term retracement, bears will likely consider 0.79018 as an entry point. Otherwise, and if price continues to break down, 0.78069 will be the next target

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