Canada's retail sales slips, Canadian dollar edges higher

[Ben Graham]

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory for a third straight day. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3820, up 0.18% on the day.

Canada's retail sales slide

Canada's retail sales declined by 0.8% m/m in July, a sharp dowrturn from the 1.6% gain in June. The volatility in retail sales reflects uncertainty over the US tariffs, which has affected consumer spending. August is expected to show a rebound, with a preliminary estimate of a 1% gain, which would make up for the July decline.

US unemployment claims slip

There are no US releases today but there was positive news from the employment front on Thursday. Unemployment claims fell to 231 thouand last week, down from 264 thousand a week earlier, which was the highest reading since October 2021. The sharp spike in claims, together with soft nonfarm payrolls, had elevated concerns about the health of the US labor market.

The latest unemployment claims release indicates that layoff are low, but hiring remains weak as the demand for workers has slowed. The Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on the labor market and Fed Chair Powell cited the downside risk to employment as the reason for the rate cut, the first since December 2024.

• USDCAD is testing resistance at 1.3808. Next, there is resistance at 1.3821
• 1.3796 and 1.3783 are providing support

USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, September 19, 2025

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