Dow Jones, Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 face third day of consecutive decline despite GDP number beat

Despite the best efforts of today’s US GDP report, which upgraded Q2 growth estimates by some margin, US equities trade lower in today’s session and look to set to continue a three-day losing streak.

• At the time of writing, the Dow Jones stands at $45,911, down 0.67% for the day, while the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 are at $24,325 and $6,604, down 0.91% and 0.71%, respectively
• While failing equity pricing following hot US GDP numbers seems counterintuitive, markets are interpreting how the economic data showing a stronger-than-expected economy will affect upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve

Read the full release: Gross Domestic Product 2nd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate)...

At face value, the notion that strong economic growth, or at least, stronger than previously expected economic growth, could actually devalue US equities is confusing to say the least.

Not only considering today’s release, which revised Q2 growth from 3.3% to 3.8% as part of the final estimate, but also comparing GDP numbers from Q1 to Q2, there is reason to be more optimistic about the US economy than was twenty-four hours ago.

So why have US equities sold off across the board?

The answer, as ever, is how today’s data affects future monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve.

In simple terms, rate cuts are harder to justify when the economy is reportedly strong. Given today’s data, some are asking questions about how aggressively the Federal Reserve will choose to continue its easing cycle, which started only last week in the form of a 25 basis point cut.

While further rate cuts before year-end remain overwhelmingly likely, any suggestion that rate cuts are becoming less likely, or harder to justify, courtesy of strong data, will typically hurt equity pricing, with lower interest rates promoting higher economic growth.

In a nutshell, the good news of a strong economy can be considered bad news for equities in the current market cycle, as it questions the notion that lower interest rates are coming, a key catalyst for a continued market rally.

The proof is in the metaphorical pudding, of course, and while the dollar has gained today, US equities remain somewhat off the boil as they retrace from previous highs.

• While still firmly in bullish territory, price action in today’s session could break the current trendline, suggesting at best some consolidation will need to take place, or at worst, some downside might be possible in the short-term
• Forming throughout Tuesday’s trading, price action on the daily time frame is close to a gravestone doji candle, which has been followed by some textbook downside

Likely support

S1: $45,642

S2: $45,060

Likely resistance

R1: $46,480

• Boasting the best percentage performance of the three YTD, the Nasdaq-100 has broken the upward trend line in today’s session, suggesting price will need to consolidate or will risk a move to the downside
• In line with Fibonacci, on the daily timeframe, price has further to fall, with $24,035 being the next area of support. Especially regarding US tech, some continue to cast doubt over current valuations, with the collective P/E ratio averages slowly on the rise throughout 2025

• Telling a similar story to the Nasdaq-100, the most recent S&P 500 uptrend has been broken in today’s session, assuming price closes at or below current valuations
• According to the ADX on the daily timeframe, the current trend strength is weakening, and trading at levels was last seen in a period of consolidation in mid-August. We can expect some support to be found around $6506

Read more coverage MarketPulse: Swiss National Bank maintains interest rates, US GDP revised higher,Swiss franc slips

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.