Breaking News: US core PCE inflation rises by 2.9% Y/Y in August vs 2.9% expected

• US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) August YoY (ex. Food & Energy): +2.9% vs +2.9% expected, meets consensus
• US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) August MoM (ex. Food & Energy): +2% vs +0.2% expected, meets consensus
• US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) August YoY: +2.7% vs +2.7% expected, meets consensus
• US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) August MoM: +0.3% vs +0.3% expected, meets consensus
• US Personal Income August MoM: +0.4% vs +0.3% expected, above consensus by +0.1%
• US Personal Spending August MoM: +0.6% vs +0.5% expected, above consensus by +0.1%

Breaking: US core PCE rises by 2.9% YoY in August, up 0.2% MoM. The report broadly meets expectations with PCE numbers all meeting consensus, while personal income and spending came in marginally higher.

Key takeaway: The Federal Reserve’s ‘preferred’ inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), is rising in line with expectations. Meeting consensus in today’s report, should inflation also remain under control by other metrics, this would support the notion of further easing efforts.

“From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $132.9 billion in August. Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.“

US Personal Income and Outlays, August 2025, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

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