Gold (XAU/USD) set to challenge $4,000 as prices renew all-time highs in today’s session - Potential targets and price forecast

In today’s session, gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3960 per troy ounce, up an astounding +1.91%, and has yet again comfortably renewed all-time highs.

With gold pricing up over 50% year-to-date, markets now turn their gaze to the key level of $4,000, having only rallied above $3,000 for the first time in history less than seven months ago.

As ever, let’s take a look at some of the macro themes affecting precious metal markets, alongside some likely price targets for this week’s trading.

• While wind has remained in the sails of precious metals for much of 2025, news of the US government has provided further tailwind to the current rally, with heightened market uncertainty boosting gold prices north of $3950
• A higher level of market conviction regarding the Federal Reserve’s path to further rate cuts is also boosting gold pricing, with some sources reporting a 92.5% probability that US interest rates will be cut again in the upcoming decision
• Otherwise, a persistent feeling of market uncertainty, particularly concerning worldwide sovereign debt, adds to the current precious metals premium

Read previous coverage: Gold (XAU/USD) soars to fresh all-time highs in today's session - Potential targets and price forecast

Another day, another session, and another all-time high for the world’s favourite yellow metal

Bar one major exception, the fundamental analysis picture for gold remains virtually unchanged from last week’s coverage, with markets remaining demonstrably bullish.

While gold and silver pricing continue to impress, let’s break down some significant developments in the last seven days, and, most importantly, how bullion trades within touching distance of $4,000 for the first time in history:

US government shutdown: While there will be no prizes for those who correctly predicted the aforementioned exception would be the recent shutdown of the US government, major disruption to the US federal government has proven, somewhat predictably, incredibly positive for gold pricing.

While the recent Senate disagreement is not the first time, dare I say, nor the last, that Republicans and Democrats have clashed over government funding, the event is the first of its kind in over six years, adding to a growing feeling of market uncertainty.

Market conviction on Federal Reserve easing path: Defying the odds of a staunchly hawkish Federal Reserve for much of 2025, gold has still rallied to new highs multiple times this year. While an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve has been the prevailing narrative for some time, most notably signified by a reduction in interest rates in their September decision, markets are now more convinced than ever that a second rate cut will follow in October, directly benefiting precious metal pricing.

To add a further level of complication, and owing to the aforementioned government shutdown, key economic data reports like nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and PCE have been suspended until further notice, which puts the Federal Reserve in an unenviable position if it wishes to maintain its mandate of ‘both stable prices and maximum sustainable employment’, effectively flying blind. This goes double when considering that extended periods of shutdown can significantly hinder economic performance, providing further rationale for a potential rate reduction.

Put simply, the Federal Reserve’s shift from hawkish to dovish has removed a prominent anchor to current precious metal upside, pushing the existing rally even higher.

Shifting our focus to market technicals, let’s begin by examining the monthly chart, then move on to the daily.

If I had shown you this chart unlabelled, one would be forgiven for thinking this was the five-minute chart, especially considering the past eight candles or so.

While sustained upside, as shown above, is rare on the weekly chart, gold bulls will undoubtedly be pleased with recent performance, with price action virtually parabolic.

Having broken out of an upwards channel, with the upper boundary held around $3,602, what followed was an explosive move to the upside, marking fresh all-time highs.

While no candlestick structure to the upside could otherwise offer resistance, traders should be aware that a short-term correction remains possible, with the RSI reporting gold pricing as ‘overbought’ for the fourth time this year.

Otherwise, should price stage a move higher, we can expect some profit-taking at the key level of $4,000.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target 1: Key psychological level: $4,000
• Price target 2: 78.6% Fib: $4,096
• Support 1: 78.6% Fib: $3,866
• Support 2: 61.8% Fib: $3,783
• Support 3: Previous high: $3,440

While it seems remiss to mention a potential for bearish momentum all things considered, a fall below the 9-day moving average, currently held at $3,629, could encourage bears, albeit few in number at present.

Read more about other market rallies: Bitcoin breaks above $125,000 as shutdown fears brings Crypto safe-haven demand

At the current pace markets are moving, gold could stage a serious challenge for $4,000 in the next few days.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target 1: Key psychological level: $4,000
• Resistance 1: Upper Bollinger band limit: $3,941
• Support 1: Consolidation: $3,867
• Support 2: 9-period Ma: $3,839

With the current upside bookmarked by a 9-21 MA crossover, price is currently testing the upper limit of the 20-day Bollinger band, suggesting a period of consolidation or a retracement towards the baseline is likely to follow recent bullish momentum.

If prices do retrace, traders would be well-advised to confirm the response at key levels of support, offering a potential entry point for those looking to enter a long position.

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