USDCAD steadies as Carney-Trump meeting boosts North American currencies

[Ben Graham]

A key theme of 2025 has been broad North American currency weakness — particularly against the Euro and other European majors. Both the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar have struggled to attract sustained inflows as economic momentum has slowed on both sides of the border.

This comes amid a generally weaker Canadian economy (Canada Trade balance data missed again today at -6.32B vs -5.55B exp), the US Main rate remaining elevated and projected to get reduced (we only just got the first 25 bps cut), and, more importantly, US Tariffs hurting trade and economic activity further, particularly between the two neighbors.

Markets received some decent Canadian Ivey PMI results (59.8 vs 51.6 exp) at 10:00 bringing back some hopes for better economic results for the Land of the Maple Syrup.

With the prospect of tariffs or terms to them reducing with today’s meeting between Canada’s Prime Minister Carney and US President Trump, both the US dollar and Canadian dollar are strengthening against their peers.

As a reminder, the CAD is, for example, at levels not seen since 2009 against the stronger Euro, and traders look for better fundamentals to support the currency.

Fundamentals that are struggling to be found in a slow Canadian economy.

Nonetheless, the better prospects for today’s meeting are helping both currencies regain some ground, leading to interesting developments in USDCAD.

Let’s observe what they are through a multi-timeframe analysis of the North American pair.

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USDCAD Multi-timeframe technical Analysis and levels

Daily Chart

USDCAD Daily Chart, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

After breaking out of its August consolidation (1.3720 to 1.3880), buyers made a push towards the 1.40 resistance zone and came close to the psychological level.

Overall, momentum for the US Dollar did calm sharply after a post-FOMC huge rise, leaving some space for the Loonie. This translates to a sideways moving RSI and sellers appearing at the 200-Day Moving Average.

Looking forward, a break above that key MA (Currently at 1.3983) should also lead to continuation above the 1.40 level.

Rejecting here however would point to higher odds of return into the August range at least.

Let's have a closer look.

4H Chart

USDCAD 4H Chart, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking closer, the pair is consolidating in a triangle formation accentuating the odds of a breakout as prices converge.

Things will depend on the outcome of today's meeting so stay close to the headlines.

Overall, bulls have more to lose in case the upward (Support) trendline breaks, but also receives a backup from the 4H MA 50 which will be the last barrier before re-entering the August range.

Look at a close below the 1.3925 Pivot level for confirmation of this thesis.

Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:

Resistance Levels

• recent highs 1.39866
• Friday Sep 29 resistance around 1.3950
• 1.40 Major resistance
• April 3 lows around 1.4050

Support Levels

• 1.3925 Aug 22 highs current pivot
• 1.3850 to 1.3860 support
• 1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support

There is some ongoing small, indecisive selling but things should get spicier as the day advances and headlines land.

Safe Trades!

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