Teck slashes copper forecast as Anglo stands firm on $53B merger

Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B)(NYSE: TECK) has lowered its copper production guidance for 2025 after persistent setbacks at its Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine in Chile and Highland Valley Copper (HVC) operation in Canada.

The company, which in September agreed to a $53-billion merger with Anglo American (LON: AAL), stressed that the deal’s strategic rationale remains intact.

Teck reported QB copper output of 39,600 tonnes and sales of 43,900 tonnes in the third quarter. Annual production guidance for 2025 has been cut to between 170,000 and 190,000 tonnes, down from 210,000–230,000 tonnes, after extended downtime to raise the tailings dam crest. 

Forecast output for 2026 has also been reduced to 200,000–235,000 tonnes from an earlier 280,000–310,000 tonnes.

The Vancouver-based said ongoing tailings management facility (TMF) development continues to restrict output and will cause additional concentrator downtime through 2025, particularly in the third quarter. Net cash unit costs for 2025 are now projected between $2.65 and $3.00 per pound, up from previous guidance of $2.25–$2.45. Costs are expected to ease to $2.25–$2.70 per pound in 2026 as production improves.

The company added that optimization work at QB, expected to increase throughput by 5–10%, will be delayed beyond 2027–2028 due to continued TMF development and downtime in 2026. Teck warned that if efforts to improve sand drainage or advance TMF construction fall short, production in 2026 and 2027 could face further disruptions.

QB has long been central to Teck’s growth plans, but the mine has been mired in difficulties since its overhaul, running more than 80% over budget and years behind schedule. In addition to cost overruns, the project has faced pit and plant instability, a ship-loader outage, and waste storage issues.

At HVC in British Columbia, lower grades and maintenance prompted Teck to trim its 2025 copper output guidance to 120,000–130,000 tonnes from 135,000–150,000 tonnes. The company said the rest of its assets should perform broadly in line with earlier forecasts.

Proven approach

Anglo American said in a separate statement that it “fully supported” Teck’s updated outlook, calling the revisions consistent with the findings of its comprehensive operational review.

The mining giant reaffirmed that the merger’s strategic rationale, including synergy estimates and timing, remains unchanged.

Anglo also backed Teck’s more measured approach to QB’s ramp-up, noting that its own technical and project delivery teams had successfully addressed similar issues during the commissioning of Quellaveco in Peru.

Despite QB’s slower expansion, Teck maintained that the mine’s underlying potential “remains intact” and that synergies with Anglo’s nearby Collahuasi mine could unlock additional value. 

Teck emphasized that QB is capable of operating at design levels, achieving recovery rates of 86% to 92%, when TMF development is not a constraint.

Teck president and CEO Jonathan Price said the updated plan reflected “realistic performance assumptions and risk assessments”.

Anglo reaffirmed expectations that the merger will deliver an average annual EBITDA uplift of $1.4 billion from combining QB and Collahuasi, along with $800 million in recurring synergies, creating a stronger, more resilient copper producer.