EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, the pair is trying to hold the 1.1625 level, near the 100-day SMA. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown negatively affects the dollar's exchange rate against the single European currency. Later on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak.

It has been nine days since the start of the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1 due to Congress's failure to agree on a new budget that should have been approved by September 30. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have stopped collecting data and publishing reports, complicating the Fed's rate-setting decisions and hindering companies' planning. These circumstances could weaken the dollar and support growth in the main currency pair in the near term.

The FOMC minutes released on Wednesday from the September meeting showed that most participants supported a rate cut that month and indicated the possibility of further cuts later this year. However, some policymakers expressed caution, citing inflation risks.

At the same time, the political crisis in France, following the unexpected resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his cabinet, may negatively affect the euro. French President Emmanuel Macron, under pressure, is forced to consider calling early parliamentary elections or possibly resigning himself, as his former allies have defected to the opposition and are demanding active measures to stabilize the political situation in the eurozone's second-largest economy.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart are negative, and the pair is struggling to hold the 1.1625 level near the 100-day SMA. If prices fail to hold this level and drop below the round level of 1.1600, bulls will lose the strength to fight.

The nearest resistance for the pair is at 1.1650; a break above it would open the way toward the round level of 1.1700, which lies just above the 50-day SMA.

But as long as the oscillators on the daily chart remain negative, the path of least resistance for the pair is downward.

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