Friedland’s copper crisis forecast proves true as historic supply crunch nears

Global demand for copper is accelerating toward levels that could outstrip supply within two decades, creating what industry veteran Robert Friedland calls a once-in-history challenge for the world economy.

Over the next 18 years, he warns, humanity will need to mine as much copper as it has over the past 10,000 years combined to sustain even modest economic growth.

Friedland’s message, repeated over years of public appearances, has proven prescient. “This is the revenge of the old economy,” he said in 2021. “For two decades, not enough capital has gone into finding the metals we need for the energy transformation.”

Copper, he argues, lies at the centre of both economic growth and national security. Used in everything from electric grids to military hardware, it has become the lifeblood of modern industry. As of October 2025, copper trades at over $5.00 per pound — roughly $11,000 per tonne — marking a 55% increase from just five years ago.

The economics of scarcity

Despite the rally, current prices remain far below what the industry needs to stimulate new production. Friedland predicts copper must reach $15,000 per tonne to justify the immense capital costs of building new mines. “Nine thousand dollars a ton is not enough to take the risk,” he said in late 2023.

The gap between rising demand and limited supply poses an existential challenge. At today’s consumption rates, roughly 700 million metric tonnes of copper mined throughout history will need to be matched again by 2043 just to sustain 3% annual GDP growth.

Strategic imperatives

Copper’s importance extends far beyond economics. Friedland highlights its strategic role in national defense, pointing to US military concerns over shortages of 155-millimetre howitzer (type of artillery weapon) shells. “If somebody’s pointing a gun at you, you need that copper to shoot back,” he said earlier this year.

That urgency is driving calls for a renaissance in US copper mining, an industry that has seen virtually no new development in generations. Dependence on foreign sources now threatens both supply stability and security.

Policy and political shifts

Friedland credits recent US administrations, particularly under current President Donald Trump, for recognizing the need to secure raw materials domestically. “Speaking as a miner, we see a lot more government support,” he noted. “The new administration is correctly focused on making sure the world’s largest economy has stable access to raw materials at the scale of that economy.”

As copper prices climb toward his long-term projections, investors and policymakers are watching closely. The metal that once symbolized industrial might is again at the heart of a global transformation. This time at the centre of one defined by scarcity, strategy and survival.