Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The upcoming U.K. economic data will be relatively scarce, but one report in particular could lend significant support to the British pound. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September will be published. As highlighted in recent commentary, inflation in the U.K. has been running nearly double the Bank of England's (BoE) target for some time now—and next week it could officially surpass that benchmark twofold. Annual CPI is expected to rise by another 0.2%, reaching 4.0% year-over-year. Core inflation may increase to 3.7%. This single report could lead the BoE to abandon any remaining plans for a rate cut before year-end. Though some economists still expect …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. economic calendar remains limited due to the ongoing government shutdown. As a result, political developments will take center stage in the coming week. Chief among them is the ongoing budget standoff between Democrats and Republicans—though at the moment, it's clear that there are no real negotiations taking place. Donald Trump's team shows no desire to reach a compromise with the opposition, instead applying pressure by threatening mass layoffs of government employees and shutting down key programs initiated by Democrats. In essence, Trump remains true to form—avoiding compromise and continuing to issue ultimatums. Over the weekend, new mass protests erupted ac…
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The EUR/USD pair finds itself at a crossroads amid conflicting fundamental signals. For the past two weeks, buyers have repeatedly attempted to settle the price in the 1.17 area, while sellers have defended the 1.15 zone. However, the pair has finished the past two Fridays near the middle of this range—levels like 1.1622 and 1.1653—essentially hovering within a broad channel, reacting only to strong news impulses without committing to a clear directional move. The cause? A contradictory flow of information—a bearish one offsets every bullish factor. For example, last week Jerome Powell pressured the dollar with dovish rhetoric, while Donald Trump supported the greenback…
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The price performance of Bitcoin over the past two weeks has been a major source of concern, as the coin’s value continues to drift away (about 15% down now) from its all-time high. As the flagship cryptocurrency slows down, the latest on-chain data suggests that a group of investors is exiting the market en masse. More Short-Term Holders Are Giving Up Their Holdings In an October 18 post on the X platform, on-chain analyst Darkfost revealed that a significant number of Bitcoin’s short-term investors have started to close their positions and realize their losses. Darkfost’s analysis was hinged on the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, which tracks the net amount (in USD)…
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Bitcoin is trading around $107,000 after its recent flash crash, maintaining stability to prevent further decline but is yet to return to trading above $110,000. Notably, popular crypto analyst Titan of Crypto shared a detailed Gaussian Channel analysis on X that points to Bitcoin’s macro bull structure remaining intact despite short-term volatility. His post, which was accompanied by a Bitcoin price chart, shows how Bitcoin’s position relative to the Gaussian Channel offers a clear view of the ongoing cycle. Bull Market Intact Above Gaussian Channel Titan of Crypto noted that Bitcoin’s placement above the Gaussian Channel represents strength in the long-term trend. As …
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EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Friday, EUR/USD posted a relatively strong downward movement—something that would not be expected from a single macroeconomic report like euro area inflation data. In the previous analysis, we stated that the market was unlikely to react significantly to this release, as the second estimate of inflation rarely moves markets. However, this time the data surprised: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September came in at 2.4% year-over-year, instead of the 2.3% previously reported. What does this mean? Inflation is accelerating, and the European Central Bank clearly won't lower interest rates any time soon. If inflation keeps climbing, …
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GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Friday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a minor pullback, but by the end of the day, it had recovered most of its losses. While the euro appears on the verge of canceling a barely-started bullish reversal, the pound remains confidently within its emerging upward trend. Late on Friday, the price bounced off the Senkou Span B line—a critical signal that the market is ready to continue buying. There were no notable macroeconomic events on Friday. Therefore, we continue to expect more upward movement from the British pound. None of the global fundamentals support the U.S. dollar at this point. The situation for the greenback continues to de…
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The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a relatively unexpected decline toward the moving average on Friday. From a technical standpoint, there was nothing extraordinary about this move—it was a routine correction. If sellers manage to hold the price below the moving average, the trend may shift back to bearish, though even that would likely have no long-term implications. This is all about the daily timeframe. The "Trump Trend" began earlier this year, placing us firmly in a medium-term outlook. It's on higher timeframes like the 24-hour chart that the picture becomes clear: we are in a strong uptrend that has, over time, transitioned into a broad sideways range—or flat ma…
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The GBP/USD pair experienced a moderate decline on Friday by the end of the day, though it was significantly weaker than the drop observed in EUR/USD. It's important to note that no macroeconomic reports were released in either the U.K. or the U.S. during the final trading day of the week. Market movement was primarily driven by politics, and there is no shortage of that at the moment. Donald Trump remains committed to ending the war in Ukraine, recently calling it "the ninth war he will resolve." While some may struggle to count the prior eight, this theme fits within Trump's recurring narrative that, had he been in office, events such as the Russia–Ukraine war wouldn't …
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EUR/GBP Despite the pair's desperate attempt on Friday to break above the MACD line, the day closed with a black candlestick, confirming the consolidation that occurred the day before. Additionally, the oscillator line of the Marlin indicator on the daily timeframe has returned to the territory of a downtrend. There are all the initial signs of a further price decline toward the lower boundary of the price channel, in the area of the 0.8592 mark. The duration of such a move could equal half the distance between Fibonacci time lines No. 9 and No. 10, which, accounting for the weekend, points to the beginning of November. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated…
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GBP/USD Friday's trading range for the pound was about 80 pips, with the day closing down by eight pips. The lower shadow of the candlestick touched the MACD line. This is a sign that the repositioning of short-term traders has been completed, and the price is ready to continue rising toward the target level of 1.3525. The balance line (red moving average) is approaching this level, and the price may reach the target at the point where it intersects with the indicator line. In that case, a new correction may occur. The Marlin oscillator is still in negative territory but visually appears to be preparing to enter the growth zone. On the four-hour chart, the extremes of F…
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EUR/USD On Friday, the market experienced profit-taking. The euro declined by 35 pips, and trading volume was high. However, with the start of a new week, speculators may once again turn to risk amid rising stock indices and government bond yields. On the daily chart, the price briefly dipped below the MACD indicator line, but today's session opened above it. The Marlin oscillator is rising and preparing to enter the territory of an upward trend. Once it does, euro growth may accelerate. The target at 1.1779, based on the highs of October 1 and September 9, is open. On the four-hour chart, during the downward correction, Marlin did not move into negative territory, and …
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Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above $107,500 and $108,000. BTC could continue to move up if it clears the $109,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $105,000 resistance level. The price is trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $107,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $109,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery Bitcoin price failed to surpass the $110,000 resistance level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below the $108,000 and $106,500 support le…
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Ethereum price started a recovery wave above $3,880. ETH is now rising and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,050 resistance. Ethereum started a fresh recovery above $3,800 and $3,880. The price is trading above $3,920 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $3,940 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it trades above $4,050. Ethereum Price Rises Again Ethereum price struggled to settle above $4,050 and corrected most gains, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below the $4,000 and $3,800 levels. It even tested the $3,680 zone. A low was f…
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[XPD/USD] – [Monday, October 20, 2025] With a Death Cross between both EMAs and the RSI indicator in the Neutral-Bearish zone showing a Hidden Bearish Divergence, XPD/USD has the potential to continue weakening. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 1733.97 2. Resistance. 1 : 1615.86 3. Pivot : 1554.09 4. Support. 1 : 1435.98 5. Support. 2 : 1374.21 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 1435.98, there's a high likelihood it will test the 1374.21 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1374.21 is broken and closes below, XPD/USD could continue weakening toward 1256.10. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The downside bias …
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[USDX] – [Monday, October 20, 2025] The appearance of a Bearish Divergence on the RSI indicator against the price movement of #USDX, combined with its position in the Neutral-Bearish zone and confirmation via a Death Cross between the two EMAs, suggests that #USDX is likely to decline today. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 98.86 2. Resistance. 1 : 98.69 3. Pivot : 98.34 4. Support. 1 : 98.17 5. Support. 2 : 97.82 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 98.34, #USDX may continue its decline toward 98.17. Momentum Extension Bias: If 98.17 is breached, #USDX has the potential to fall further toward 97.82. Invalidatio…
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Friday Trade Review: 1-Hour Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair declined more than it rose. As a reminder, the technical trend turned bullish last week; therefore, traders are now fully justified in expecting the euro to rise. It's also worth noting that recently (in our view), the euro had few grounds for decline, and the U.S. dollar had little reason to strengthen. However, the daily timeframe remains flat, which is why we saw nearly three weeks of decline, raising many questions. As for Friday itself, the inflation report in the Eurozone for September came in above both forecasts and the initial estimate. The higher the inflation rate, the less …
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Friday Trade Review:1-Hour Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair showed a slight downward movement on Friday amidst easing tensions between China and the United States. It is also worth noting that over the weekend, the United States witnessed its third protest against Donald Trump's immigration and trade policies, with this one being the largest by far. Demonstrations took place in more than 2,600 cities across America, and not all of them were peaceful or orderly. As we can see, America is rebelling against Donald Trump, which is quite logical considering both his foreign and domestic policies. Consequently, we continue to believe that with Trump at the helm, America is…
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Macroeconomic Report Overview: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Therefore, today, traders may only monitor speeches by Donald Trump and little else. Even speeches by central bank representatives currently carry minimal significance, as markets have a clear understanding of what to expect in the near future. The only remaining uncertainty relates to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, though even that is relatively minor. Fundamental Event Overview: Few fundamental events are scheduled for Monday, and almost none of them are generating any interest. Over the past several weeks, we have witnessed numerous speeches from representatives of…
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Cantonese Cat argues that Dogecoin remains structurally primed for a late-cycle surge that would track the pattern of prior crypto bull markets, insisting that the coin’s decisive move has not yet arrived. In a 50-minute market analysis published on Oct. 19, the analyst ties Dogecoin’s setup to liquidity cycles and inter-market signals, but emphasizes that the DOGE read is simple: the market hasn’t seen the characteristic Dogecoin breakout that, in past cycles, has coincided with Bitcoin’s final acceleration. “Whenever you have Bitcoin going up, Dogecoin also is forming a pretty decent base,” he said, noting that DOGE has participated only marginally while Bitcoin has gr…
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Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on October 20 The U.S. dollar regained part of its position against risk assets, but so far this appears to be no more than profit-taking following a strong rally. Given the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, particular attention will focus on the first half of the day. Data on Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) and the European Central Bank's current account balance are expected. Later, the President of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, is scheduled to speak. Economists closely monitor Germany's PPI, as it is a key indicator of inflationary pressure in the eurozone. A rise in producer prices often precedes a rise in consumer prices,…
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When everyone is selling, it presents a great opportunity to buy. Despite an unfavorable week for the S&P 500, the capital flow from money market funds totaling $24.6 billion into U.S. equity funds with $28.1 billion is a strong indication of the underlying strength of the uptrend. Investors continue to use dips in the broad stock index as buying opportunities, even if they are doing so less openly than before. Weekly Performance of the S&P 500 October is a time for reassessment. The stock market had long been dismissing negatives such as the government shutdown and excessively high fundamental valuations, including P/E ratios. At the midpoint of autumn, inv…
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Review of Forex Trades and Trading Advice on the EuroThe price test at 1.1684 occurred when the MACD indicator had already deviated significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. A bounce buy at 1.1658 allowed me to secure around 15 pips of profit. Friday's eurozone inflation data did not significantly aid the euro's growth. Focus now shifts to Germany's Producer Price Index and the European Central Bank current account balance. In addition, a speech by Germany's central bank president, Joachim Nagel, is scheduled. An increase in German producer prices often precedes a rise in consumer prices, whic…
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Review of Forex Trades and Trading Advice on the British PoundA test of the 1.3425 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. A rebound buy at 1.3394, which I mentioned in my forecast for the second half of the day, yielded about 25 pips of profit. No economic data is expected from the UK today, meaning GBP/USD retains the potential for further growth. However, traders should pay close attention to global factors influencing currency pair dynamics. In particular, investor attention will be focused on news from the United States…
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Review of Forex Trades and Trading Advice on the Japanese YenA test of the 149.97 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. The U.S. dollar regained part of its ground against the Japanese yen; however, the overall trend remains in favor of yen strength. The fact that the Federal Reserve plans to continue aggressively cutting interest rates puts pressure on the dollar and supports demand for the yen, which is currently of particular interest to traders. Considering the macroeconomic situation in the United States and statements from the Federal Reserve, the dollar is unl…
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