Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Easy trades that pay well How to Identify and Trade a Liquidating Market Easy trades that pay well A liquidating market occurs when traders are focused on exiting positions and not adding new ones. Instead of fresh buying or selling to build positions, the dominant flow consists of participants rushing to get out, creating sharp, often relentless price moves. In today’s environment, this behavior has been especially visible in U.S. equities, including the NASDAQ 100. After reaching record highs fueled by AI enthusiasm, tech-sector strength, and expectations of a December Fed rate cut, sentiment shifted quickly. Concerns about stretched valuations and mixed signals from …
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As the latest US government shutdown ends and markets refocus on macro plumbing, Raoul Pal has sketched out a strikingly liquidity-heavy roadmap on X – one that, in his framework, has direct implications for crypto. “So now the US Gov has reopened, what’s next?” Pal asks. He immediately points to the Treasury General Account (TGA): “Expect a few days for TGA spending to begin to significantly add to liquidity and should persist for several months.Obviously, QT ends in Dec and the balance sheet will crawl higher. We should see the dollar begin to weaken again.” Mechanically, TGA drawdowns push cash back into bank reserves and money markets, reversing the reserve drain th…
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Canary Capital launched the first US ETF that provides direct exposure to XRP. The fund will start trading today on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPC. Pretty wild to think that it saw a $58M trading volume right at the start. That is more than any other ETF launched this year (approximately 900 funds), according to Bloomberg’s ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. It even beat out Bitwise’s Solana ETF by a hair. These two crypto ETFs are way ahead of the rest, with the third-best launch trailing by more than $20M, showing that investors’ demand for crypto-linked products is still going strong. “XRP is one of the most established and widely used digital assets in the world, accessibil…
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To understand whether any major buyers remain in the cryptocurrency market, it's enough to look at the latest report. According to the data, US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $869.9 million on Thursday. This marks the second-largest outflow in history, which explains why no one seems willing to buy Bitcoin—even below $97,000. According to SoSoValue, Mini Trust led the withdrawals with $318.2 million in outflows. BlackRock's IBIT saw a net outflow of $256.6 million, while Fidelity's FBTC lost $119.9 million. Grayscale's GBTC, along with ETFs from Ark and 21Shares, Bitwise, VanEck, Invesco, Valkyrie, and Franklin Templeton, also recorded ne…
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The weekly chart for XRP has compressed into a decisive structure that now sits on the edge of a major move, and the latest projection from crypto analyst Dark Defender outlines how this structure could push to as high as $36 this bull cycle. His outlook centers on an Elliott Wave pattern that started forming in June, and the chart behind the analysis shows a sequence that is approaching the point where momentum returns with force. Elliott Wave Structure Points To A Wave Three Expansion Technical analysis of the XRP’s weekly candlestick timeframe chart shows that the cryptocurrency has spent the past several months compressing inside a tightening structure, forming a nar…
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I wish I had been “scammed” by Zcash six weeks ago instead of three weeks ago. But hey! Beggars can’t be choosers. Zcash sisters! Rise up! But before we get into this Weekly Crypto Round-Up, tell us what this pattern is called: (Source: TradingView) So you’re telling me I’ll have another chance to buy BTC at $80k? Maybe. Or maybe it is smart money selling before the actual Big Dump finally happens, and we can all go back to waging at McDonald’s! All of this is happening while Zcash (ZEC) broke ranks and surged above $500, defying broader selloffs. The rally followed an explosive announcement from Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, who unveiled Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH…
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Imagine thinking that changing the name from Microstrategy stock to Strategy was a good idea. Anf now Michael Saylor just floated a message on X that said “Buy Now,” which comes exactly three years after FTX begged people to buy FTT. What do you say lads, should we help him? (Source: X) We had no retail this cycle, which means no altcoin bull market, and most working-class people believe the price of Bitcoin is too high. Institutional treasuries are the retail investors this time around, buying huge bags at 90k while the rest of the crypto space, which actually bought earlier, cheers on Michael Saylor as some kind of genius, buying at higher prices than anyone. Well, w…
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Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 154.63 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. A second test of 154.63, with the MACD in the overbought zone, triggered Scenario No. 2 for selling the dollar, though it did not lead to a significant decline in the pair. In the second half of the day, the focus will be on speeches by FOMC members Lorie K. Logan and Raphael Bostic. A hawkish stance on rates could help the USD/JPY pair rise. Statements by senior Federal Reserve officials always attract close market attention, as they provide insight into the curr…
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Overview: The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias today but is mostly within yesterday's range. There are four developments to note. First, China's October data mostly disappointed, but the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new low since October 2024. Second, the UK government reportedly has shifted strategies to focus on bracket thresholds and narrow tax increases rather than violate campaign promises. Sterling is trading in the middle of yesterday's ranges, while Gilts have been sold. Third, the numerous Fed officials that have spoken over the last couple of days have seen the market pullback expectations of a Fed cut next month to slightly less than 50%. Fo…
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Trade Review and Advice for Trading the British Pound The test of the 1.3134 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points. The pound continues to show high volatility, directly linked to issues surrounding the UK's budget for next year. Uncertainty regarding tax policy, economic stimulus measures, and plans to reduce the budget deficit is putting pressure on the sterling, making investors nervous and prompting them to seek more stable assets. The situation is further complicated by high inflation, which, despite the Bank of …
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What to Know: Cash App will add stablecoin send/receive using Solana rails in 2026, pushing fast, low-cost dollar payments into the mainstream. Stablecoin UX at scale shifts power to wallets that simplify cross-chain swaps, presales access, and spending – the core Best Wallet stack. Best Wallet’s utility narrative – multichain, non-custodial, integrated DEX, card roadmap – maps cleanly onto the new payments landscape. $BEST’s $17M+ presale has a $0.025945 price, with 77% APY staking that declines over time to balance rewards and supply. Jack Dorsey just widened the rails for mainstream crypto payments. Cash App unveiled plans to let users send and receive stablecoins,…
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Bitcoin dropped to $96,000 on heavy selling Friday, and falling risk appetite, leaving traders and analysts parsing whether this is normal profit-taking or a larger turning point for the market. According to on-chain and market reports, the drop wiped out more than $700 million in long positions and left November down by more than 10%. Whale Transfers Draw Focus Reports have disclosed that a wallet tied to trader Owen Gunden moved 2,400 Bitcoin — about $237 million — onto the Kraken exchange, a transfer tracked by blockchain watcher Arkham. Based on analysis by Glassnode, long-term holders’ average daily spending rose from over 12,000 BTC per day in early July to roug…
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Trade Review and Advice for Trading the European Currency The test of the 1.1635 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro and resulted in a decline toward the target level of 1.1614. Several public speeches by FOMC members are scheduled for the afternoon, including Jeffrey Schmid, Lorie K. Logan, and Raphael Bostic. Given the growing support among policymakers for the idea of temporarily pausing the rate-cutting cycle, it is quite possible that these members will adopt a similar stance. If Committee members continue to express aligned views, this could significantly…
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Are AI crypto attacks becoming the most significant unseen danger to your digital assets? The rapid growth of AI-driven hacking tools, deepfake scams, and automated exploit discovery has created a new category of portfolio threats, quiet, scalable, and shockingly convincing. While traditional risks, such as macro crashes, regulatory shocks, and bridge exploits, still generate the most significant losses, AI is supercharging attacks that target individuals rather than entire protocols. Retail traders now face scams that feel human, sound human, and adapt to their behavior. And although AI isn’t “sentient”, its speed and automation make old threats far more dangerous than …
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The EUR/JPY pair is consolidating after six days of gains. At the moment, spot prices are trading slightly below the psychological level of 180.00 and appear ready for further growth amid prevailing bearish sentiment toward the Japanese yen. Earlier this week, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged the Bank of Japan to coordinate monetary policy more closely, emphasizing a preference for maintaining low interest rates. This move heightens uncertainty regarding the future tightening path of the Bank of Japan—a key factor behind the yen's weakness and a major driver of the EUR/JPY pair's dynamics. At the same time, the euro is receiving support from expectations that t…
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Today, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow range, consolidating the recent strong rally toward the more-than-two-week high reached the day before. The US dollar is attracting active sellers, trading near the two-week low reached yesterday, Thursday, amid concerns about the possible economic consequences of a prolonged US government shutdown. This is the main factor supporting the rise of the EUR/USD pair. In addition, the contrasting policy approaches of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are supporting the currency pair, confirming the likelihood of a continued two-week upward trend. An increasing number of Fed officials are expressing caution regardin…
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Metaverse? Anyone? That was 2020-2021. It was so trendy that Facebook had to rebrand to Meta. Everyone believed the tech would revolutionize crypto gaming by 2025, a scene where Illuvium was a top dog. Roughly four years later, and there is nothing to show. Crypto games have been devastated, and only those who continue now, even with some of the best cryptos to buy, at all-time highs, are burning cash quickly. It is the sorry state in which Illuvium finds itself. Falling Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana crypto prices have not helped either. ILV crypto is now down 99.6% from all-time highs of $1,911 printed in late 2021. In the last year alone, .cwp-coin-chart svg path {…
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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594 and rose toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656, as forecast. A rebound from this zone on Friday will favor the US dollar and a slight decline toward 1.1594. A consolidation above this zone will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The new upward wave has not yet broken the peak of the previous wave, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bearish at this time. Bullish traders have launched an offensive, but they need to …
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday made another rebound from the 161.8% retracement level at 1.3110 and rose above 1.3186. At that moment, it might have seemed that the bullish advance would continue, but over the next 10 hours the quotes again returned to the support level of 1.3110–1.3139. Today we once again have to expect either a rebound from this zone or a close below it. In the latter case, the decline will continue toward the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3024. The wave situation remains bearish. The new upward wave did not break the previous peak, while the last downward wave (which formed over three weeks) broke the previous low. The news backgro…
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JPMorgan has put a numerical marker under this Bitcoin cycle, telling clients that the market’s “pain threshold” now sits near $94,000 — a level the bank frames as both a mining-economics floor and an answer to the question of how low spot can realistically trade before fundamentals start to bite. According to reporting by The Block, the analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argues that “Bitcoin’s downside from current levels appears to be ‘very limited,’” because they “see its support price at around $94,000.” How Low Can Bitcoin Go? The core of the call is JPMorgan’s updated estimate of Bitcoin’s production cost. In their latest note, cited by The Block, the anal…
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It seemed that everyone had already come to terms with the idea that the UK budget would partly rely on new taxes imposed on the population, when yesterday, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves stated that she is considering abandoning plans to raise basic income tax rates and several other levies. This raises questions about how she intends to compensate for the existing budget deficit. According to media reports, Reeves may decide not to increase either the basic or higher income tax rate after widespread concerns emerged within the party about breaking the Labor Party's campaign promise not to do so. Reeves' statement, which came unexpectedly, caused a strong …
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, from the level of 1.3187 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward 1.3110 – the 161.8% target level (red dashed line). When testing this level, an upward retracement toward 1.3148 – a historical resistance level (light-blue dashed line) is possible. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Composite Analysis: Indicator analysis – downwardFibonacci levels – downwardVolumes – downwardCandlestick analysis – downwardTrend analysis – downwardBollinger Bands – downwardWeekly chart – upwardOverall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3187 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin…
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What to Know: Sentiment flipped negative after Bitcoin dipped below $100K for the second time this month, turning investors cautious and rather pessimistic. However, institutions remain bullish into year-end, with many planning to increase crypto allocations as regulatory clarity improves. Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) and Maxi Doge ($MAXI) are among the best crypto presales that align with today’s market: one solves throughput; the other captures rotation with community utility. Quant ($QNT) provides listed exposure to interoperability, trading on major exchanges with a market cap around the $1B+ zone. Pessimism spiked after this week’s drawdown. Derivatives funding reset, …
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, the market may continue moving upward from the level of 1.1632 (yesterday's daily candle close), targeting 1.1655 – the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a downward retracement movement may occur, targeting 1.1640 – the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Composite Analysis: Indicator analysis – upwardFibonacci levels – upwardVolumes – upwardCandlestick analysis – upwardTrend analysis – upwardBollinger Bands – upwardWeekly chart – upwardOverall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: Today, from the level of 1.1632 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may…
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The crypto market is experiencing one of its strongest pullbacks in weeks as .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.positive svg path:nth-of-type(2) { stroke: #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive { color: #008868 !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.positive { border: 1px solid #008868; border-radius: 3px; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive::before { border-bottom: 4px solid #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-price…
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