Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Well, I think they're just a bit late to update their call as market expectations for the BOE have been quite settled for a while now. As things stand, traders are not seeing any more rate cuts for this year but are pricing in a strong probability of the next one being in February 2026. As for the first full rate cut priced in though, that will be for March next year. Besides inflation risks, the November budget is going to be a key factor to watch in taking stock of the fiscal side of things for the UK economy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645. It consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695, after which the pair pulled back. Today, the growth may continue toward the next 100.0% retracement level at 1.1789. A move below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 1.1637–1.1645 level. The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peaks, while the most recent downward wave did not breach the previous low. Thus, the trend continues to shift toward "bullish," although the likelihood of sideways m…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.3416–1.3425 and consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3482. The rebound from this level overnight suggests further pound growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.3587. A move below 1.3482 would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 1.3416–1.3425 level. The wave structure remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke through two previous lows at once, while the latest upward wave has not yet managed to surpass the previous peak. The news background has played a significant role in shaping the waves w…
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Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal level, with selling pressure dominating the market and volatility shaking investor confidence. After weeks of choppy trading, BTC is barely holding above the $110,000 mark, a threshold that many analysts view as critical for maintaining a bullish structure. Momentum has clearly shifted in recent sessions, and the market is now bracing for the possibility of a deeper correction. Adding to the concern, top analyst Axel Adler shared insights from the Bitcoin UTXO Age Metrics, which reveal growing signs of distribution from long-term holders. Historically, when older coins begin to move, it often signals that experienced investors are taki…
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As Bitcoin continues to search for direction, El Salvador has added another 21 BTC to its holdings, worth roughly $2.3 million. The purchase commemorates the fourth anniversary of the country's Bitcoin Law, which established the cryptocurrency as official legal tender back in 2021. "We will buy one #Bitcoin every day until Bitcoin becomes unaffordable with fiat currencies," President Nayib Bukele wrote on Sunday. This step once again highlights the visionary—but also high-risk—strategy of President Nayib Bukele, who has bet on Bitcoin as a tool for modernizing the economy and attracting investment. Despite enthusiasm from Salvadoran authorities, experts and internation…
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Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 70 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting; the rest for a 50 bps cut) ECB: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 12 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 42 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 30 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 38 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 7 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoJ: 12 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)The biggest changes in interest rates expectations happened o…
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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctu…
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The euro posted a modest gain on news that industrial production in Germany rose more than expected in July, offering some hope that the country's key sector may be stabilizing and could soon overcome its prolonged downturn. According to Destatis, output increased by 1.3% compared to the previous month, driven by growth in machinery and equipment production. This was the first increase since March. This modest recovery, however, should not be viewed as a signal of full recovery. Germany's economic indicators, along with those of the eurozone, remain fragile, weighed down by geopolitical risks and structural problems. Nonetheless, the positive surprise from Germany serves…
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Is the bottom finally in? Bulls surely believe so. BTC ▲0.82% is stabilizing above $111,000, trading near $111,300 on September 8 as the crypto market shows signs of steady recovery. Most sectors are in the green: the AI and big data token market rose around 3%, while meme coins posted stronger gains. DOGE ▲7.55% climbed back to $0.23, and smaller crypto such as USELESS rallied about 30% over the past three days. Additional momentum comes from the first Dogecoin ETF, set to launch this week, and the introduction of Dogecoin Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). Could be DOGE the best crypto to buy right now? DogecoinPriceMarket CapDOGE$35.25B24h7d30d1yAll time EXPLORE: 9+ Bes…
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Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon just lost a $14M court battle over a failed Singapore penthouse deal, as global legal cases mount following the Terra-Luna collapse. The High Court dismissed his claim, ruling that the developer was within its rights to keep the deposit after the purchase fell through. The upshot is: Do Kwon is finally on trial. 135 years down to potentially 12 years. The judge wants to give him 25. Despite the judge ruling against him, he’ll get a lesser sentence than SBF. The property in question, a 7,600-square-foot Orchard Road duplex valued at S$38.8M, was intended to be Kwon’s showcase asset before the 2022 TerraUSD and Luna collapse, which wip…
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The latest U.S. employment report is direct evidence that the Federal Reserve has no option but to return to a looser monetary policy. A few years ago, unemployment was at a half-century low. Now, this troubling rate has reached its highest level since 2021, recorded at the height of the pandemic. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate of 4.3% raises concerns that the labor market—hit both by uncertainty and by rising costs associated with Trump's trade war—is on the brink of a more significant downturn. These 4.3% are not just numbers in a report. They represent a complex picture of interconnected economic forces steadily eroding the fo…
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Trend analysis. This week, from the level of 1.3506 (close of the last weekly candle), the price may continue downward toward 1.3389 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may extend its downward move toward 1.3270 – the historical support level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Monthly chart – down.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: Downward movement. Overall summary of the GBP/USD weekly candle calculation: The price will most likely have a downward …
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Asia Market Wrap - Japan PM Ishiba Resigns Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Recovers but the Outlook Remains Murky. WIll NFP Data Serve as a Catalyst? Following weeks of public pressure due to his party's second national election loss, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba has announced his resignation. This has triggered a leadership contest that may cause market instability. The Topix, jumped 1.3% to a new all-time high of 3,146.58. The Nikkei 225 index, which tracks top Japanese companies, also rose by 1.45% to 43,643.81, which is close to its own record. The value of the yen dropped by 0.4% against the U.S. dollar, with one dollar now worth 148 yen. Japanese government …
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Prior -3.7Euro area investor morale slumped further going into September, with the headline reading being the lowest since April. Sentix noted that "economic anxieties are coming back with full force", adding that "there is not much sign of an autumn revival and the pressure on export-oriented industry is likely to increase further due to US tariffs". This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
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There's just no stopping the gold train still as the September month is really kicking off. The reasons to stay bullish on the precious metal are still very much there and after the period of consolidation from end May to end August, that's adding to the extra oomph in the latest breakout we're seeing. The question now is, where do we go from here? The upside momentum has been unrelenting since last year and there will come a period where gold buyers will have to pay their dues. However, it doesn't appear to be that the time is here yet. Even if September is typically a softer month for gold, the narrative this time around is largely driven by other factors. The most nota…
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Trend analysis (Fig. 1). This week, from the level of 1.1718 (close of the last weekly candle), the market may start moving downward with a target of 1.1536 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may begin moving upward with a target of 1.1571 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Monthly chart – down.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: Downward movement. Overall summary of the EUR/USD weekly candle calculation: The price will most likel…
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Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the level of 1.3506 (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward with a target of 1.3469 – the 21-day EMA (black thin line). Upon testing this line, the price may begin moving upward with a target of 1.3486 – the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – down.Overall conclusion: Downtrend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3506 (Friday's daily candle close), the price may start moving downward with a …
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Fundamental Overview The USD sold off across the board on Friday following another soft NFP report. The dovish bets on the Fed increased as a result and the market is now expecting three rate cuts by year-end (70 bps). Moreover, we have also an 8% probability of a 50 bps cut in September but that will likely happen only if we get a soft CPI report on Thursday. In that case, the greenback will likely weaken further into the FOMC meeting. Overall, if one zooms out, the US dollar continues to range although the dovish bets on the Fed keep weighing on the currency. Part of that could be the fact that the bearish positioning on the dollar could be overstretched and we might be…
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The past week proved ambiguous for global markets in terms of determining what to expect for the US economy in the near future and whether the significant deterioration in the US labor market will actually prompt the central bank to reduce interest rates more aggressively. Last Friday, I suggested that if the jobs data released on that day turned out to be below forecast, the Federal Reserve might cut the key interest rate not by 0.25%, but by 0.50% at once. But the report revealed not just a miss, but a catastrophic drop in job growth to 22,000 in August versus a forecast of 75,000. And even though July's figures were revised upward to 79,000, that's still very little. I…
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Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the level of 1.1718 (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward with a target of 1.1691 – the 14.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, an upward move is possible with a target of 1.1697 – the 76.4% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – up;Fibonacci levels – up;Volumes – up;Candlestick analysis – up;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – up;Weekly chart – up.Overall conclusion: Uptrend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.1718 (Friday's daily candle close), the price may start moving downward with a target of 1…
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In a video analysis published today, the crypto chartist known as Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow) laid out a multi-time-frame bullish case for Dogecoin, arguing that the asset is entering a third major cycle with technicals aligning for an upside break and multi-dollar targets—provided key resistance levels are cleared. “I’m extremely bullish on Dogecoin. I’m not going to be shy about it,” he said, adding that the current advance looks “a lot healthier than the last cycle.” Dogecoin Breakout Could Shock Bears Cantonese Cat frames the landscape first on the monthly chart, where the 20-month moving average has historically toggled from resistance to support at major inflection…
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Gold prices continue to rise, directly linked to expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve. However, many other factors are also providing strong support for the metal. As the data shows, in August, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month, continuing to diversify its holdings by reducing the share of US dollars. This strategic decision is part of a broader dedollarization trend seen in several countries seeking greater financial independence and protection against dollar exchange rate fluctuations. The data indicate that China is not alone in its pursuit of gold. Many central banks worl…
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It is evident that even after the weak US labor market data—which points to a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve—there was no sharp or explosive demand for Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency assets. This suggests that the market correction is not yet complete, and we are likely to see trading within a channel, with a gradual renewal of weekly lows. In the worst-case scenario, sell-offs will be sharp and rather significant. Investors appeared to ignore the potentially dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, which is usually seen as a positive for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. There are several possible reasons for such a muted reaction. Firstly, the crypto m…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 148.08 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair plunged by 120 pips. Buying on the rebound from 146.84 allowed for an additional profit of around 60 pips from the market. Employment in the US non-farm sector grew by only 22,000 in August, which led to a sharp drop in the dollar and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. This unexpectedly weak figure, which contrasts sharply with forecasts predicting an increase of around 75,000 jobs, caused a wave of concern in financi…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe price test at 1.3493 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was starting to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the pound and resulted in growth toward the target level of 1.3546. Selling from there on the rebound allowed for an additional profit of about 30 pips from the market. The latest report from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that employment in the U.S. rose by only 22,000 in August, which led to a sharp drop in the dollar and strengthening of the pound. This figure falls significantly short of forecasts, which anticipated over 75,000 new jobs, and raises…
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