Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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On the weekly chart, the price is trying to push through the support of the MACD line. This line has been broken several times in the past (marked by green arrows), but each time the price quickly rebounded as there was no weekly close below it. The same may happen now — if the next weekly candle does not close below the current level of 1.3400, then a breakout into a medium-term downtrend is unlikely. However, the probability of a true breakout is significantly higher this time compared to previous attempts, because back then the Marlin oscillator remained in positive territory, whereas now it is situated in negative territory. On the daily chart, the price has moved …
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At the end of yesterday's trading session, the euro fell by 53 pips. During today's Pacific session, the price has already dropped another 30 pips, approaching the target level of 1.1605. The Marlin oscillator is also declining after rebounding from the zero line. Even on the weekly chart, divergences are present and Marlin remains in negative territory. Formally, the price action is developing in line with our primary scenario, under which the euro is expected to continue its long-term decline toward the key target at 1.1066 — the May low — which nearly coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally that began in January this year. However, this otherwise cle…
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Bitcoin's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has been correcting for the second consecutive day after a strong upward movement that began on September 26. If today's daily candle closes as a bearish (black) candle, this will confirm the price's consolidation below the target level of 122,185, as well as below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The next downside target will be the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with support at 117,418 — the August 22 high. Further decline toward 115,679 is also possible. This level corresponds to the low from July 15 and lies near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A deeper correction below that zone is unlike…
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Tuesday Trade Review1-Hour EUR/USD Chart On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued falling despite an entirely empty macroeconomic calendar. The U.S. dollar, which had declined throughout 2025, is now unexpectedly rising — and many analysts are scrambling to find explanations for this move. There are no convincing arguments in favor of dollar strength this week. Last week, the dollar at least moved sideways, although even that didn't make sense considering the weak overall macro and fundamental backdrop. To recap: ISM business activity indexes came in weak, U.S. employment data disappointed again, and a government shutdown began in the U.S. We believe there are …
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Tuesday's Trade Review1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On both Tuesday and Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to move downward, with no apparent reason for this decline. Many analysts have attributed the strength of the dollar to the political crisis in France. However, that doesn't explain why the British pound is falling too. Could it be that it's the dollar rising? However, let's recall that on Monday and Tuesday, no significant U.S. events occurred, and the U.S. Senate failed for the fifth time to pass a budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Is that reason enough for the dollar to rise? Because the government shutdown continues? That's why we consider this movement…
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Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin can double into year-end—and he says the catalyst is a White House blueprint to capture the levers of US monetary policy. In an appearance on The Rollup, the BitMEX co-founder sketched a path to $250,000 per coin predicated on what he calls a “secret weapon”: a rapid consolidation of control over the Federal Reserve (Fed) that would clear the way for aggressive credit creation, yield-curve engineering, and an eventual flood of fiat liquidity into digital assets. Trump’s Fed Plan Could Catapult Bitcoin To $250,000 Hayes’ $250,000 year-end Bitcoin call rests on a narrow but explosive thesis: Donald Trump can seize functional control of the Fed…
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Macroeconomic Report Overview: Only one macroeconomic release is scheduled for Wednesday — Germany's industrial production data. We believe that most traders already understand that this report, even if it generates a short-term reaction, is unlikely to have any significant influence on the broader market trend. The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen for reasons that defy fundamental and macroeconomic logic. We consider the current movement entirely illogical, and traders need to recognize and accept that. Key Fundamental Events: Despite a thin macro data calendar, several fundamental events are lined up. In the Eurozone, European Central Bank President Chri…
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Solana started a fresh decline from the $238 zone. SOL price is now consolidating losses below $225 and might decline further below $218. SOL price started a fresh decline below $232 and $230 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading below $225 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $230 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start another increase if the bulls defend $218 or $212. Solana Price Dips Below Support Solana price extended gains above $225 and $230, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL even surpassed $235 before the bears appeared. A high was form…
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Key takeaways AUD/NZD nears breakout: The pair rallied 1.10% since 6 October 2025, approaching the key long-term resistance at 1.1470.RBNZ turns more dovish: The central bank cut its cash rate by 50 bps to 2.5%, signaling openness to further easing to boost demand.Yield spread widens: The AU–NZ 10-year bond yield spread expanded to 0.16%, reinforcing bullish momentum for AUD/NZD.Technical setup remains strong: Uptrend within a medium-term ascending channel; breakout above 1.1470 could target 1.1510 next. This is a follow-up analysis and timely update of our prior report, “AUD/NZD: Bullish en route towards a 10-year high at 1.1470 with a less dovish RBA”, published o…
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According to market reports, open futures positions on XRP have grown sharply this month, even as the token struggles to push past the $3 mark. CryptoQuant data shows open interest near $2.92 billion, while Coinglass reports a much higher $8.94 billion figure, reflecting wider market coverage that includes venues such as the CME. Open Interest Climbs Despite Price Hurdles Reports have disclosed that XRP’s open interest rose from $2.34 billion on September 25 to roughly $2.92 billion as of Monday. That increase comes at the same time the token moved from a low of $2.74 to about $2.99, nearly 10%. Yet trading activity has not kept pace. Volume fell by 10% over 24 hours …
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The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen against risk-sensitive assets. Yesterday's comments from Federal Reserve officials that lower interest rates might lead to higher inflation supported the U.S. dollar. Traders, concerned about the likelihood of tighter U.S. monetary policy, quickly rotated out of the euro and other risky assets and into the safer dollar. Additional pressure on the euro came from an ECB official's remarks, suggesting that the eurozone could face a sharp decline in its inflation target. The market reacted instantly to the warning signs of potential deflationary pressures, sparking a sell-off in the euro and, consequently, boosting the U.S. dollar. This…
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[Gold] – [Wednesday, October 8, 2025] With the condition of both EMAs crossing a Golden Cross and the RSI at Extreme-Bullish levels today, buyers still dominate XAU/USD. Key Levels 1. Resistance 2: 4021.88 2. Resistance 1: 4003.09 3. Pivot: 3971.76 4. Support 1: 3952.97 5. Support 2: 3921.64 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If XAU/USD successfully breaks above 3971.76, it has the potential to test its nearest resistance level of 4003.09. Momentum Extension Bias: If 4003.09 is successfully broken and closes above it, it has the potential to strengthen Gold to 4021.88. Level Invalidation/ Bias Revision Upside bias weakens when Gold weakens and closes below 3921.64…
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Trade Review and Strategy for the EuroA price test at 1.1658 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1658 happened while the MACD was in the oversold zone. This allowed Buy Scenario #2 to unfold, resulting in a 20-pip upward movement. Comments by Federal Reserve officials about the potential for rising inflation if interest rates are cut too quickly contributed to the U.S. dollar's strength and a significant decline in the euro. Investors, anticipating tighter monetary policy in the U.S., actively sold the euro and other…
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Trade Review and Strategy for the British PoundA price test at 1.3431 occurred while the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming the right entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 30 pips. Buying on a bounce from 1.3400 also allowed for a profit of approximately 20 pips. The pound fell and the dollar strengthened following comments by Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, who warned that an aggressive rate cut could lead to rising inflation. Coming amid increasingly hawkish rhetoric from the Fed, his statement had an immediate impact on currency markets, boosting the d…
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Trade Review and Strategy for the Japanese YenA price test at 151.17 occurred while the MACD indicator was beginning to rise from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair gained more than 40 pips. The yen continued to rapidly lose ground against the dollar following yesterday's comments from Federal Reserve officials. Specifically, remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari — who warned that a sharp decrease in interest rates could lead to a surge in inflation — triggered a rally in the dollar and further weakness in the yen. However, the yen's current weakness is also driven by domestic factors. Following S…
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Bitcoin posted a notable decline yesterday, pulling back to more attractive buying levels around $121,000. Many traders are now wondering whether this drop will continue or if it's merely a temporary correction that could soon give way to a new bullish wave. Recent data shows that inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs continue to rise—most notably into BTC ETFs. This in itself suggests that the crypto bull rally is not over. As a reminder, inflows into spot BTC ETFs are one of the strongest bullish drivers in the crypto market. Rising inflows reflect growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies, as ETFs offer institutions a regulated and convenient way to gain exposur…
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Where it is thin, it is prone to tearing. Investors are starting to ask the tough questions: what kind of real profits are technology companies generating from artificial intelligence? And when the answer turns out to be "barely detectable" — so small they need to be examined under a microscope — panic begins to set in. Disappointing results from Oracle regarding its partnerships with OpenAI and other companies triggered a sell-off in the S&P 500. Tesla added fuel to the fire with its underwhelming unveiling of new versions of its top-selling vehicles. With such a high level of concentration in the U.S. stock market, the broad index is forced to react to any news from…
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Cardano (ADA) is showing renewed momentum after weeks of sideways action, climbing back above its 50-day moving average and putting the $0.94 resistance back in focus. Traders view this level as the next major hurdle to unlock a run at the $1.00 psychological mark. On the daily chart, ADA has reclaimed its green 50-DMA as support, while RSI has rebounded toward 50, leaving room for further upside if buy volume continues to build. A clean daily close over $0.9 would confirm a trend shift and strengthen the case for a Q4 continuation rally. Coinbase Sparks Institutional Signal: Cardano (ADA) Reserves Jump 462% Fueling the bullish narrative, Coinbase’s ADA holdings sur…
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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctu…
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Just a couple of weeks ago, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted that gold could soon reach the $4,000 mark. Yesterday, that prediction came true. Spot gold prices exceeded $4,000 per ounce for the first time and are now holding around $4,036. This milestone comes amid growing concerns that the ongoing government shutdown could have a severe impact on the U.S. economy. It's a historic moment for gold, which was trading below $2,000 just two years ago. This year alone, gold has surged more than 50%, driven by global trade uncertainty, questions surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve, and concerns over U.S. financial stability. Heightened geopolitical tensions…
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Bitcoin experienced a solid correction yesterday during the US trading session. The movement from $125,000 down to $120,500 was quite active, after which the first buyers began to step in, suggesting that the bullish rally is clearly not yet over. Yesterday, media outlets reported that the SEC is preparing an innovative exception for crypto projects. This will be a so-called "special regime" that allows startups to test blockchain solutions under regulatory supervision, without fear of immediate lawsuits or penalties. This step could mark a breakthrough in the relationship between the crypto industry and the SEC, which has been tense recently due to numerous lawsuits a…
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The euro has weakened significantly. Recently, more and more policymakers from the ECB have been advocating for a more cautious approach when making decisions on interest rate cuts, but Governing Council member of the European Central Bank Olli Rehn is not among them. Yesterday, the policymaker warned that there is a risk consumer price growth could slow to below the 2% target. "We have roughly achieved the goal — in that sense the situation is good right now," said the head of the Bank of Finland. "However, in the next couple of years, we can expect inflation to slow, partly due to the strengthening of the euro and the stabilization of wages and service prices." Now, af…
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As Bitcoin (BTC) resumes recording new all-time highs (ATH), focus is back on key price levels that could provide investors with an idea about the next possible resistance levels that may see a sell-off in BTC. Fresh on-chain data offers a map of BTC’s most important price levels. Bitcoin May Face Resistance At These Levels According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, the cost basis (Realized Price) of BTC Short-Term Holders (STH) provides a snapshot of important support and resistance zones. Notably, the STH Realized Price highlights the aggregate price at which recent market participants acquired their BTC. This information can give analysts…
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Asia Market Wrap - Stocks Retreat Tracking Wall Street Most Read: USD/JPY Price Outlook: Key Levels, BoJ, and Political Risks Asian stocks fell taking their cues from Wall Street. Market participants are starting to become more careful because they are worried that stock prices have gone too high (stretched valuations) and that too much money is being invested into Artificial Intelligence. This caution is making them doubt whether the recent market gains will last. As a result, Asian stocks are heading for their biggest drop in two weeks, following declines in both the MSCI All-Country World Index and the U.S. S&P 500, both of which slipped after a seven-day winnin…
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Yesterday, the U.S. dollar continued its rise against a number of currencies — with the euro and the Japanese yen suffering the most. The dollar's rally resumed after Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari warned that any sharp cut in U.S. interest rates could lead to higher inflation. His remarks, delivered amid growing expectations of imminent monetary easing, had a significant impact on the currency market. Investors, weighing the risks associated with premature policy loosening, once again turned to the dollar as a relatively safe asset. Kashkari's comments highlighted the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve. On the one hand, slowing economic growth …
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